联合国：世界人口展望2022_52页_10mb

World Population Prospects 2022 Summary

Core Content

The World Population Prospects 2022 report, published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, provides an overview of global population trends and projections from 1950 to 2100. It highlights key demographic changes, challenges, and opportunities for sustainable development, emphasizing the role of population data in policy-making and planning.

Main Points

• Global Population Growth:
  The world's population is projected to reach 8 billion by November 2022.
  By 2030, it is expected to reach 8.5 billion, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100.
  The growth rate has slowed significantly, falling below 1% per year in 2020 for the first time since 1950.
  The growth is largely driven by the demographic momentum from the youthful age structure of the current population. Even if fertility rates were to drop immediately, the population would still grow due to this momentum.

• Life Expectancy:
  Global life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019, up from 63.9 years in 1990, an increase of almost 9 years.
  It is projected to reach 77.2 years by 2050.
  Women have a life expectancy advantage over men, with a global gap of 5.4 years in 2019. This gap ranges from 7 years in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.9 years in Australia and New Zealand.

• Fertility Trends:
  The total fertility rate (TFR) globally has fallen from 5 births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 births per woman in 2021.
  It is projected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman by 2050, which is close to the level required for zero population growth.
  In sub-Saharan Africa, TFR remains high at 4.6 births per woman, while in Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand), it is 3.1 births per woman.

• Population Distribution:
  Two-thirds of the population growth through 2050 will occur in eight countries: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania.
  India is projected to surpass China as the most populous country by 2023.
  Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to grow through 2100 and account for more than half of the global population increase by 2050.

• Age Structure:
  The share of the global population aged 65 or older is projected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050.
  This increase is driven by lower mortality and sustained fertility decline.
  Women will outnumber men in the elderly population, with their share expected to decrease slightly from 55.7% in 2022 to 54.5% in 2050.

• Demographic Dividend:
  A sustained drop in fertility leads to a concentration of the population at working ages (25–64 years), creating an opportunity for economic growth.
  Countries should invest in healthcare, education, and productive employment to maximize this potential.

• Population Decline:
  61 countries or areas are projected to experience a population decline of 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, due to low fertility and high emigration.
  The largest relative population declines are expected in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia, and Ukraine.

• International Migration:
  Migration has become a major component of population change in some regions.
  In high-income countries, migration is expected to be the sole driver of population growth in the coming decades.
  In low- and middle-income countries, growth will continue to be driven by births exceeding deaths.
  Refugee movements from Syria have significantly impacted migration in Jordan, Lebanon, and Türkiye.
  Countries should facilitate safe, orderly, and responsible migration in line with SDG 10.7.

• Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic:
  The pandemic caused a reduction in global life expectancy from 72.8 years in 2019 to 71.0 years in 2021.
  The impact varied by region, with Central and Southern Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean experiencing the largest drops in life expectancy.
  In some countries, the pandemic led to a decline of over 4 years in life expectancy.
  The effect on fertility remains mixed, with low- and middle-income countries showing stable contraceptive use and unintended pregnancies, while high-income countries experienced short-term fluctuations.
  Migration was severely restricted, and the full impact on demographic trends is yet to be fully understood due to data limitations.

• Role of Population Data:
  Population data are critical for development planning and monitoring progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
  The 2022 revision includes population estimates and projections by single age and sex for one-year intervals, from 1950 to 2100.

Key Information

• Citation: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. UN DESA/POP/2022/TR/NO. 3.
• Website: www.unpopulation.org
• Contact: population@un.org or Fax: 1 212 963 2147
• Copyright: Figures and tables can be reproduced under Creative Commons license (CC BY 3.0 IGO).
• ISBN: 978-92-1-148373-4
• Sales No.: E.22.XIII.3

Conclusion

The report underscores the complex interplay between population trends, fertility, mortality, and migration in shaping future demographic scenarios. It emphasizes the importance of population data in guiding development strategies, especially in the context of climate change, health, and economic growth. While population growth is slowing, demographic momentum will continue to drive increases until 2050, and ageing populations will present new challenges. The report calls for adaptive policies to address these changes and support sustainable development.

Acknowledgements

The report was prepared by a team including Victor Gaigbe-Togbe, Lina Bassarsky, Danan Gu, Thomas Spoorenberg, and Lubov Zeifman, with support from various UN agencies and experts. Special thanks are given to John Wilmoth, Bela Hovy, and Stephen Kisambira for reviewing the draft.

Acronyms

• TFR: Total Fertility Rate
• ASFR: Age-Specific Fertility Rate
• SDGs: Sustainable Development Goals
• LDCs: Least Developed Countries
• LLDCs: Landlocked Developing Countries
• SIDS: Small Island Developing States
• UN IGME: United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation
• WHO: World Health Organization
• CRVS: Civil Registration and Vital Statistics
• PES: Post-Enumeration Survey
• PPP: Purchasing Power Parity
• ISCED: International Standard Classification of Education
• GNI: Gross National Income
• ICPD: International Conference on Population and Development

Structure

The report is organized into three main sections:

1. A century of world population trends: 1950 to 2050 – Describes the growth and age structure of the global population over the past 100 years.
2. Trends in fertility, mortality and international migration – Analyzes the key drivers of population change.
3. Long-range population projections to 2100 – Presents future population trends and their implications.

Additional Notes

• Regional Groupings: The report uses six continental regions and geographic classifications based on the Sustainable Development Goals.
• Least Developed Countries (LDCs): These countries are among the fastest-growing, with many projected to double in population by 2050.
• Small Island Developing States (SIDS): These countries face additional challenges due to climate change and sea-level rise.
• Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs): These countries are also vulnerable to demographic and environmental challenges.

This comprehensive report serves as a key reference for understanding global demographic dynamics and guiding policy decisions for sustainable development.