2024年世界人口展望报告_80页_17mb

World Population Prospects 2024 Summary

Core Content

The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division released the World Population Prospects 2024, which provides a comprehensive analysis of global population trends and their implications for sustainable development. The report outlines key demographic changes, including population growth, aging, migration, and fertility patterns, and offers policy recommendations to address these trends.

Main Points

1. Global Population Peak

• The world's population is expected to peak around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024.
• After peaking, the global population will gradually decline to 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
• The probability of the global population peaking within the current century is 80%, a significant increase from the 30% estimated in 2013.
• The population in 2100 is expected to be 6% smaller (about 700 million fewer people) than previously anticipated.

2. Population Trends by Country

• 63 countries and areas (28% of the global population in 2024) have already peaked, including China, Germany, Japan, and the Russian Federation.
  • These populations are projected to decline by 14% over the next 30 years.
  • Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Puerto Rico, and Moldova are expected to have the largest relative reductions.
• 48 countries and areas (10% of the global population) are projected to peak between 2025 and 2054, including Brazil, Iran, Turkey, and Vietnam.
  • These populations are expected to increase by 5.3% over the next 30 years.
  • Bhutan, Colombia, Cyprus, and Iran are expected to have the largest relative increases.
• 126 countries and areas (the majority) are expected to continue growing through 2054, with some reaching very rapid growth.
  • Nine countries, including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, and Somalia, are projected to double their populations between 2024 and 2054.
  • These countries will influence the global population peak due to their growth trajectories.

3. Fertility Trends

• The global fertility rate has dropped from 3.31 in 1990 to 2.25 in 2024.
• More than half of all countries and areas have fertility rates below the replacement level (2.1).
• Nearly one-fifth of countries and areas, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, have ultra-low fertility (less than 1.4 births per woman).
• In 24 countries with ultra-low fertility and already peaked populations, a return to 2.1 births per woman is highly unlikely (0.1% probability) within the next 30 years.
• By the late 2030s, half of women in peaked populations will be too old to have children naturally.
• Early childbearing (under age 18) has serious health consequences for mothers and children.
  • In 2024, 4.7 million babies were born to mothers under 18, with 340,000 to girls under 15.
• Investing in education and delaying marriage and childbearing can reduce early childbearing and enhance women's health and economic participation.
• If no more births to girls under 18, the population of sub-Saharan Africa would be 3.8% smaller in 2054.

4. Life Expectancy and Population Ageing

• Global life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, up from 64.9 years in 1995.
• It is projected to rise to 77.4 years by 2054.
• Since 2022, life expectancy has returned to pre-pandemic levels in most countries.
• By the late 2050s, over half of global deaths will occur at age 80 or older.
• By 2080, the number of people aged 65 or older will exceed children under 18.
  • This crossover is expected to occur earlier in peaked populations.
• In countries with still-growing populations, the number of elderly people is also rising.
• Gender inequality contributes to longer life expectancy for women, who outnumber men at older ages in almost all populations.
  • Policies should ensure equitable access to retirement benefits and address gender-specific health needs.

5. Migration and Population Change

• Immigration is expected to attenuate population decline in 50 countries and areas.
  • For Italy, Germany, and Russia, the peak would have occurred earlier without immigration.
• Immigration is projected to be the main driver of population growth in 52 countries through 2054 and in 62 countries through 2100, including Australia, Canada, and the United States.
• Emigration can lead to significant population loss in 14 countries with ultra-low fertility.
  • In these countries, emigration of reproductive-age individuals may further depress population growth.
  • Return migration and decent work opportunities could be more effective in slowing population decline than increasing fertility.

6. Demographic Dividend and Economic Implications

• Countries with youthful populations and declining fertility have a limited time window to benefit from the demographic dividend.
  • This window is already closed for most peaked populations and three-quarters of those projected to peak by 2054.
• 100 countries and areas will still see a faster increase in the working-age population (20–64 years) than the total population through 2054.
• To capitalize on the demographic dividend, governments should:
  • Invest in education, health, and infrastructure.
  • Promote decent work opportunities.
  • Improve government transparency and efficiency.
• Gender equality and women's empowerment are key to counteracting rapid population growth or decline.
  • Policies should support family planning, education, and work-life balance.
  • Paid parental leave, flexible work arrangements, affordable childcare, and equitable caregiving responsibilities are recommended.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Leverage technology (e.g., automation, lifelong learning) to enhance productivity in aging populations.
• Strengthen health and long-term care systems in rapidly growing countries.
• Improve the sustainability of social protection systems.
• Address gender gaps in domestic responsibilities and family welfare.
• Promote return migration and decent work in ultra-low fertility countries.
• Ensure equitable access to retirement and health benefits to reflect women's longer life expectancy.

Conclusion

The World Population Prospects 2024 highlights a shift in global population trends, emphasizing the importance of understanding and preparing for these changes. With 80% probability of a global population peak by the end of the century, the report underscores the need for targeted policies to manage demographic challenges and seize opportunities for sustainable development.