2025-05-15-Jefferies-简柏特（G）_2025年第一季度跟进——交易延迟引发不确定性_更具吸引力的切入点_20页_683kb

Equity Research Summary: Genpact (NYSE: G) - 1Q25 Follow-up

Rating: BUY
Price Target: $52 (+205 from high, $56)
Key Metrics:

• Current Stock Price: $43.23
• Market Cap: $7.7B
• Revenue Estimate: 2025 constant currency growth revised to +4.2% y/y (previously +6.3%), adj EPS at $3.49 unchanged.

Summary of Analysis

Jefferies lowered its revenue estimate for 2025 due to multiple large deal delays caused by macro uncertainty, particularly tariffs, affecting sectors like manufacturing, consumer goods, and high-tech hardware. Despite the reduction, adj EPS is maintained at $3.49, reflecting management's view that deals will recover in 2026 as clients gain confidence in supply chain adjustments. The price target was increased to $52 from $56, based on a forward P/E multiple.

Reason for Adjustment

Deal delays primarily stem from tariff uncertainties, which impacted 2025 guidance. Pipeline strength and win rates (40% in 1Q) were noted, but revenue deceleration throughout 2025 is expected due to these delays. Digital Operations and Data-Tech-AI segments saw divergent performance, with Data-Tech-AI peaking at +11.7% y/y in 1Q25, while Digital Operations growth slowed.

Outlook

Despite near-term challenges, the report forecasts normalized growth in 2026, with adj EPS increasing to $3.87 (up 10.9% y/y). Positive catalysts include GenAI solutions doubling year-on-year and partnerships contributing 10% to revenue. Organic growth is expected to resume as macro uncertainty eases.

Key Risks and Considerations

• Economic factors: Global recessions or unexpected recovery could affect growth.
• Competition: Higher wage inflation and attrition (avg. 21% annualized attrition) pose challenges, though headcount growth to 142,900 employees indicates deal momentum.
• Geopolitical issues: Tariff resolutions will be critical for near-term recovery.

Valuation

The $52 price target is derived from a forward P/E multiple of 15.0x to 2025 adj EPS, reflecting normalized multiple expansion compared to the S&P 500. Peers like Accenture and Cognizant show similar valuations, ranging from 13x-16x EV/EBITDA.

Analyst Notes

• Reiterated Buy: Based on potential outperformance if risks resolve.
• cGrowth Forecast: Projects flat organic revenue for 2025 and decelerating margins if deal impacts persist.

Surinder Thind, CFA, certifies the views as reflecting personal analysis, with risks including competitive pressures and economic downturns.