2025-05-20-Jefferies-万国数据（GDS）_2025年第一季度业绩超预期；中国市场的强劲表现带来积极惊喜_16页_5mb

报告摘要

Revenue and EBITDA grew 12% and 16% YoY, respectively, beating Jefferies' estimates by -3% and +12% for GDS alone.
Subsidiary Day One saw revenue and EBITDA increase by 141% and 231% YoY, 34% and 15% above Jefferies' forecast.
Net new area commitments reached 41K sqm (30K net), the highest quarterly rate since 2018, driven by strong AI demand from major Chinese Internet players like BABA and Tencent.

China's data center capex surged 104% YoY, with key customers including CSPs and Internet giants contributing to high demand.
Demand is shifting from training to inferencing, requiring tier-one market capacity, and some new commitments will ramp up quickly, boosting revenu EBITDA in 2026-2027.
GDS guided for FY25 revenu EBITDA growth of 11%/8.5%, maintaining targets despite deconsolidation of a small data center.

Forecasts revised upward; target price for GDS set at $47.76 (+73% from current price), based on SPOT valuation and growth in AI infrastructure.
Day One expects 750MW of orders (surpassing 700MW target), with potential IPO in 2026.
International expansion ongoing, with contracts in Finland; Malaysia and Indonesia key for SEA operations.
Long-term scenarios project capacity growth in China and international markets, with increasing average lease rates.

Downside risks: Changes in US export restrictions on AI chips, loss of market share, lower demand growth in China, and fiercer competition overseas.

Jefferies BUY rating with $47.76 price target; Day One's growth underscores potential upside in international data center market.
GDS implements de-leveraging strategy, with flat capex and rising FCF starting in 2026.

This summary captures the core insights, highlighting strong performance driven by China's AI surge, while noting risks in the data center sector.

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