2025-05-20-Jefferies-阿利安特能源公司（LNT）_不断改善的数据中心故事爱荷华州_IRA担忧导致评级上调至买入_15页_1mb

Alliant Energy Corp. (LNT) Equity Research Summary

Core Content

Alliant Energy Corp. (LNT) is a regulated utility company with a strong focus on data center and large load customer growth, particularly in Iowa and Wisconsin. The research report from Jefferies LLC highlights the company's potential for EPS growth above its current guidance, driven by multiple upside factors and improved management execution.

Main Points

• Rating Upgrade: Jefferies has upgraded the rating from Hold to Buy, citing several underappreciated sources of upside and a favorable valuation opportunity.
• EPS CAGR Guidance: The company's current EPS CAGR guidance is 5–7%, with Jefferies estimating 7.4% for the period 2025–2029, slightly above the Street's estimate of ~7%.
• Price Target: The updated price target is $71.00, reflecting a +13% increase from the current price of $63.09.
• Valuation Methodology: The valuation is based on a Sum-of-the-Parts (2027E) approach, with a 16.0x P/E multiple and an implied Total Shareholder Return (TSR) of 16.9%.
• Key Drivers of Upside:
  • Data Center Growth: Alliant has secured 2.1 GW of contracted demand and is projecting ~1 GW of additional load growth, with 75% probability of execution.
  • 45Z Credit Extension: Potential extension of the 45Z clean fuel production tax credits could accelerate biofuel-related load growth in Iowa.
  • Transmission Interconnection: FERC's policy on self-funding network upgrades may lead to cost savings and increased rate base for LNT.
• IRA Risk Mitigation: Management has effectively managed IRA-related risks through safe harboring, reducing concerns about transferability and its impact on returns.
• Capital Expenditure: Jefferies incorporates a $675 Mn incremental CapEx in FY29–30 to serve the 1Q25 load additions and adds $1.15 Bn for future data center deals across FY27–31.
• Equity Issuance: The report assumes 48% of incremental CapEx will be funded through equity issuance in FY27–28, with $220 Mn in total.

Key Financial Highlights

Investment Thesis

• The company is well-positioned to achieve EPS growth above the high end of its guidance due to:
  • Data center expansion in Iowa and Wisconsin.
  • Regulatory and legislative support for clean energy and tax credits.
  • Improved management execution and proactive risk mitigation strategies.
• Jefferies believes the current market pullback is a buying opportunity, especially with IRA concerns subsiding and the House Ways & Means Committee's draft showing reduced risk of adverse outcomes.
• The historical P/E spread indicates LNT is trading at a discount to peers, offering a potential re-rating.

Catalysts

• IRA Reform (TBD)
• 3Q25 Capital Plan Roll-forward
• WI Rate Case Order (est. 4Q25)
• WI ROFR Legislation (TBD)
• ICR Filings (IA est. 2Q25, WI est. 3Q25)
• Additional Renewable Filings (IA/WI, TBD)

Sustainability Goals

• Reduce GHG emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030
• Eliminate coal from the generation fleet and increase GHG reduction to 80% by 2040
• Achieve net-zero GHG emissions from utility operations by 2050

Management Questions

• How would a rollback of the IRA impact long-term financing plans?
• What energy alternatives are being considered for power sourced from the Wyoming Powder River Basin?
• How does the company evaluate water needs for incremental load growth opportunities?

Risk/Reward Outlook

• Base Case: $71.00 (+13%)
• Upside Scenario: $80.00 (+27%)
• Downside Scenario: $50.00 (-21%)

Conclusion

Alliant Energy Corp. is well-positioned for growth due to its data center and large load customer pipeline, regulatory support, and proactive management. Despite recent underperformance, the report sees a valuation opportunity and multiple avenues for upside, supporting the upgrade to Buy. The potential for EPS growth and improved visibility into long-term guidance make LNT an attractive investment, especially with IRA-related risks appearing to be transient.