2025-05-20-Jefferies-西门子有限公司（SIEM）_铁路——大惊喜_13页_686kb

报告摘要

Core Recommendations: Buy rating with target price INR3,700 for FY25-27, based on strong margin surprise and growth in railways and mobility sectors.
Key Growth Drivers:
- Railways: 44% YoY order increase to Rs53bn, including export contracts, driving 22% EBITDA beat in Q2FY25; domestic capex, metro rail, and data centres are key opportunities.
- Mobility: Multiplied order flow (up 4x YoY), strong in India with localization to 90%; expanding exports through greenfield factories.
Financial Highlights:
- EBITDA and EPS projected to grow by 2-5% in FY25E-27E.
- ROE improving to 17-18%, with investments in sustainability (e.g., 49KW solar energy).
- Capital expenditure focus on infrastructure, with exports potentially boosting margins.
Risks: Fixed costs rising faster than revenue, slowing capex in power and general industries; margin surprises could be negative if parent's exports fade.
Valuation and Outcomes: Target price INR3,700 vs. INR2,250, aligned with improved outlook; upside from exports and operational leverage.