2025-05-20-Jefferies-西达斯生命科学（ZYDUSLIF）_zydus持续带来惊喜_提供强劲的26财年指引_买入_13页_793kb

Zydus Lifesciences Equity Research Summary

Key Highlights

• Current Rating: BUY
• Target Price: INR 1,150 (+30% from current price)
• Recent Performance: Q4 FY24 results exceeded estimates, with revenue up 18% YoY and EBITDA significantly higher due to US and India traction.
• US Market: Key growth driver with single-digit growth expected in FY26, supported by new launches like Dasatinib and Sitagliptin, offsetting gRevlimid decline.
• India Market: India formulations grew 12% YoY, with new launches and biosimilars sustaining double-digit growth.
• Financial Outlook: FY26 guided for double-digit revenue growth and EBITDA margin of 26% or higher, with earnings projected to increase through FY28.

Financial Projections

• Revenue Growth: Strong CAGR expected at 7% for 2025-2027, driven by formulations and consumer products.
• EBITDA Margin: Declined in FY25 but targeted to stabilize at 24%+ by FY28, supported by cost control and new product uptake.

Risks

• Over-reliance on US market and potential sales decline from gRevlimid post-FY27.
• Competition in products like Mesalamine could impact margins.
• Delays in pipeline products or regulatory issues affecting launches.

Investment Thesis

Jefferies maintains a BUY recommendation due to strong US pipeline, diversified growth, and favorable valuation at 27x recurring EPS, expecting sustained performance despite gRevlimid phase-out.