20231011-招银国际-Driving_for_group_improvement_6页_1mb

报告摘要

Alibaba (BABA US) Equity Research Summary

Key Insights

Alibaba's customer management revenue (CMR) and cloud revenue growth are expected to take time to recover due to macroeconomic headwinds, but the company is revitalizing growth by empowering its six main business units. The "user first" strategy in Taobao and Tmall is driving user engagement improvements, boosting merchant advertising willingness. Despite domestic business challenges from macro uncertainties, operating efficiency and international revenue growth remain positive.

2QFY24 Performance Preview

Revenue forecast: RMB 226.9 billion, up 9.5% YoY, aligning with Bloomberg consensus.
Adjusted EBITA: RMB 42.4 billion, up 17.3% YoY, with a margin of 18.7%.
CMR growth: 4% YoY in 2QFY24, supported by 1% GMV growth, with new advertising products expected to enhance monetization.
Cloud business revenue: Growth remains flat QoQ at 4%, reflecting slow enterprise digitalization recovery.

Market Challenges and Opportunities

Macro environment hinders domestic revenue recovery but allows CMR to outpace GMV.
AIDC is a bright spot in business lines, with projected 40% YoY revenue growth in 2QFY24, driven by Lazada and Alibaba Express.
Operating efficiency improvements are ongoing; AIDC, Local Services, Cainiao, Cloud Intelligence, and Digital Media groups show positive trends.

Target Price and Rating

Target price reduced to US$155.0 per ADS (from US$156.1), based on SOTP valuation.
Maintain BUY rating, reflecting long-term organizational improvements.

SOTP Valuation Breakdown

Taobao and Tmall Group: Valued at US$72.2 per ADS (net profit margin: 20%, tax rate: 20%).
AIDC: Unchanged at US$16.6 per ADS (3.0x EV/revenue).
Local Services Group: Valued at US$6.0 per ADS (1.7x EV/revenue).
Cainiao: Valued at US$7.6 per ADS (based on recent financing round).
Cloud Intelligence Group: Unchanged at US$25.8 per ADS (4.2x PS multiple).
Total SOTP target price: US$155.0, implying 15.7x FY24E PE.

Financial Highlights (2024E Projection)

Revenue growth: 11.2% YoY in FY24E, escalating to 11.7% in FY25E.
Adjusted net profit margin: 18.1% in FY24E, up from 17.4% in FY25E.
Gross margin stable at ~37.4%.

Analyst Certification

Analyst confirms personal views accurately reflect the company's outlook and no compensation ties to report views.
Compliance with trading restrictions 30 days prior and post-report issuance.

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