2025-06-16-花旗集团-马来西亚经济展望_2025年下半年展望_随着出口回调逼近_政策利率（OPR）降息可能性增加_42页_1mb

Malaysia Economic Outlook 2H25 Analysis

Key Highlights

• GDP Growth:

  • 1Q25: GDP growth was 4.4% YoY, missing expectations as domestic demand and net exports slowed.
  • 2Q25 Forecast: CITI cuts growth to 4% YoY from 4.3%, driven by external headwinds.
  • 2H25 Forecast: Growth slows to 3.7% YoY, impacted by trade payback and cyclical slowdown.

• Trade and Exports:

  • Export Surge: Export growth jumped 16.4% YoY in Apr-25 due to front-loading, led by electronics, but expected to fall in H2 due to weakening global demand and tariffs.
  • Impact of Tariffs: Sino-US trade tensions reduce demand for Malaysia exports, especially electronics.
  • Trade Balance: The surplus narrowed to RM5.2bn in Apr, reflecting stronger imports relative to exports.

• Inflation and Monetary Policy:

  • Inflation: 1Q25 saw low inflation (1.4%), with CITI forecasting 2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Fuel price hikes could push inflation higher in H2.
  • Monetary Policy: BNM indicated a tilt toward growth risks. A 60% chance of a 25bps OPR cut at July 2025, delayed to Sep or Nov if held back by tariffs.

• Manufacturing and Investment:

  • FDI and Capex: Realized FDI lags cyclical demand; investments in E&E and services are growing.
  • Production Output: PMI data shows slowing output in manufacturing, driven by weaker export orders.

• USD Pressure on MYR: Expected to strengthen due to policy support easing. Currency depreciation could complicate export competitiveness but support eventual monetary easing.

• Fiscal Measures: Plans to provide RM1.5bn in SME loan guarantees to mitigate tariff impact.

  • Budget 2024 saved RM7.7bn; fiscal flexibility remains due to lower oil prices.

• Tourism: Arrivals from China and India rising, but slow recovery limiting consumer spillover effects.

• Exports to ASEAN:

  • High risk for VN, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand linked to US-China trade tensions.

• Key Months to Watch: GDP, Retail Sales (May-Jun), PMI, and business sentiment surveys for subsequent policy actions.