2025-06-10-花旗集团-马来西亚农产品_毛棕榈油_2025年5月马来西亚棕榈油局数据——印度采购回升但库存旺季攀升_13页_509kb

报告摘要

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) exports increased by +26% MoM, driven by India's import surge of +87% MoM.
YTD production is tracking at 100% of full-year estimates, with inventories mounting +7% MoM amid seasonal high production.
Import spike of +232% YoY in first five months of 2025, primarily due to CPO imports from Indonesia for refining, but this trend is expected to reverse with Indonesia raising export duties.

India's strong buying (fall in CPO prices to ~17% YoY) supports export volumes, but muted Chinese demand limits price upside.
Indonesia's export tax increase should encourage more refining, reversing import trends.
Citi maintains bearish stance on the sector due to production seasonality and weak demand drivers, revising CPO price assumptions to RM4.2k for 2025 and lower in subsequent years.

Sector: Underweight due to price pressure and high inventories.
Valuation and Targets:
- IOI: Target price RM4.00 based on 20.5x PE; risks include CPO price downcycle and ESG concerns.
- KL Kepong: Target RM20.30, valued at 16.5x PE; similar risks to IOI.
- SD Guthrie: Target RM3.90, at 17x PE; upside from better demand or ESG mitigation.
Downside Risks: Lower CPO prices from weaker soybean oil (correlation of 0.85), economic sanctions, or poor consumption.

Note: This summary is based on Citi Research's fundamental analysis and should not be considered investment advice.

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