德银-全球-钢材市场-钢材价格跟踪：钢铁价格和炼钢成本回升-20171212-22页_1mb
报告摘要
Steel Market Summary for Europe and Global Markets - December 2017
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed analysis of the steel industry in Europe and globally, focusing on price trends, company valuations, and key risks. It includes insights into steel prices, cost structures, and the performance of major steel companies such as ArcelorMittal and Voestalpine. The analysis also covers price changes across different product categories and regions, along with valuation metrics and financial summaries for Voestalpine.
Key Price Trends
Hot Rolled Coil (HRC)
- Southern Europe: Prices rose by E3 to E506 (USD598), with a price hike of E20/t expected. Prices fell E22 in the past month.
- Northern Europe: Prices rose by E1 to E535 (USD631), but declined by E16 over three months.
- Turkey: Prices dropped by E8 to E516 (USD609), down by E44 over three months.
- US: Prices increased by USD10 to USD695, with a USD10/t price gap with Europe and USD142/t with China.
- China: Export prices rose by USD6 to USD553, with a narrowing price gap to Europe.
Cold Reduced Coil (CRC)
- Southern Europe: Prices rose by E1 to E587, but declined by E34 over three months.
- Northern Europe: Prices fell by E7 to E617, down by E23 over three months.
- Turkey: Prices fell by E3 to E559, down by E73 over three months.
- US: Prices increased by USD22 to USD898, with a USD68/t spread over three months.
Hot Dipped Galvanised Coil (HDG)
- Southern Europe: Prices rose by E1 to E604, down by E34 over three months.
- Northern Europe: Prices fell by E2 to E649, down by E25 over three months.
- US: Prices increased by USD12 to USD959, with a USD56/t spread over three months.
Plate
- Southern Europe: Prices fell by E8 to E516 (USD609), down by E42 over three months.
- Northern Europe: Prices fell by E5 to E574 (USD678), down by E35 over three months.
- US: Prices remained stable at USD759, up by USD11 over three months.
Rebar
- Southern Europe: Prices fell by E2 to E463, down by E8 over three months.
- Northern Europe: Prices fell by E6 to E555, down by E36 over three months.
- US: Prices remained stable at USD617, down by USD11 over three months.
Iron Ore
- Fines 62% Fe: Prices remained stable at USD69/dmt.
- Fines 58% Fe: Prices fell by USD1 to USD46/dmt.
- China: Steel output decreased by 1.7% WoW to 1.77mt/day.
Coking Coal
- Premium Coking Coal (Australian Exports): Prices rose by USD9 to USD236, up by E8 to E200 in EUR terms.
Scrap
- Europe: Prices rose by USD20 to USD336/t.
- Turkey: Prices rose by USD18 to USD346/t.
- US: Prices rose by USD23 to USD302/t.
Main Views and Insights
- Steel Price Volatility: Steel equities remain volatile due to macroeconomic factors and commodity price fluctuations. While current spot conditions are strong, the expectation is for European steel prices to fall as cost support fades.
- Price Hikes: Several European steel producers are pushing for a E20/t price hike, but the actual price movement has been mixed.
- Global Price Differentials: The price gap between European and US HRC increased to USD63/t, while the gap with China widened to USD142/t.
- China's Impact: Chinese steel output decreased, and export prices increased, but the price spread with Southern Europe narrowed to USD45/t, below the two-year average.
- Scrap Prices: European scrap prices rose by USD20/t, with potential for a QoQ decrease if prices remain stable.
- Company Valuation:
Key Risks
- Macroeconomic Conditions: Weaker steel prices and demand could erode earnings.
- Commodity Prices: Fluctuations in raw material and operating costs may limit profitability.
- Trade Regulations: Political influences in the steel trade could impact pricing and supply.
- Project Execution: Delays or underperformance in expansion projects may affect growth.
- Currency Fluctuations: FX rate changes could affect financial performance.
- M&A Risks: Potential challenges in valuation and integration of acquisitions.
Valuation Metrics for Voestalpine
| Metric | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (DB) | 11.5 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 10.4 | 9.3 |
| P/E (Reported) | 10.6 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 10.4 | 9.3 |
| P/BV | 1.31 | 1.03 | 1.20 | 1.42 | 1.28 | 1.15 |
| FCF Yield | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| EV/Sales | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.5 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 8.3 |
Financial Highlights (Voestalpine)
- Sales Revenue: EUR11,190m in 2017, projected to grow to EUR13,251m in 2020.
- EBITDA: EUR1,485m in 2017, projected to reach EUR2,161m in 2020.
- Net Profit: EUR536m in 2017, projected to reach EUR918m in 2020.
- Free Cash Flow (FCF): EUR92m in 2017, projected to reach EUR1,666m in 2020.
- Net Debt: EUR3,421m in 2017, projected to decrease to EUR2,042m in 2020.
Conclusion
The European steel market is experiencing mixed price trends with some regions showing strength while others face declines. Despite the volatility, ArcelorMittal and Voestalpine are highlighted as top picks due to their strong cash flow, valuation, and growth potential. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions, trade regulations, and cost structures as key factors influencing the industry's future performance.
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