国会预算办公室-2023年移民激增对州和地方预算的影响（英）-2025.6_40页_584kb

CBO Report Summary: Immigration Surge Effects (2023)

Introduction

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analyzed the fiscal impact of a surge in immigration beginning in 2021 on state and local budgets in 2023. The surge added an estimated 4.4 million people to the U.S. population in 2023, primarily in states like Florida, Texas, and California. The analysis estimated both direct and potential effects, with net costs in both measures.

Direct Effects

• Net cost: $9.2 billion (0.3% of state and local spending, net of federal grants). This includes:
  • Revenue increase: $10.1 billion (mostly sales taxes).
  • Spending increase: $19.3 billion (primarily for primary/secondary education, shelter, and border security).
• Key findings: The surge led to immediate budgetary costs due to the increase in population and related services.

Potential Effects

• Broader costs: Accounts for indirect economic impacts, such as increased property tax revenues and higher economic activity.
• Net cost: $9.8 billion.
• Revenue increase: $18.8 billion (includes direct $10.1 billion plus $8.0 billion from economic growth).
• Spending increase: $28.6 billion (includes direct $19.3 billion plus nonbudgetary costs like crowded schools).
• Difference: Potential effects capture longer-term pressures not reflected in direct effects.

Tax Revenue Changes

• Direct increases: Sales taxes up by $7.1 billion; property taxes by $0.7 billion; income taxes by $1.6 billion.
• Additional revenues: $8.0 billion from economic activity growth due to the surge.
• Immigrantharacteristics: Lower incomes and lower tax compliance (15% lower income tax compliance) reduced revenues.

Spending Increases

• Direct increases:
  • Primary/secondary education: $5.7 billion.
  • Shelter and related services: $3.3 billion.
  • Border security: $2.7 billion.
  • Health insurance and income security: $0.9 billion.
  • Incarceration: $0.8 billion.
  • General services: $6.1 billion.
• Potential increases: Primary/secondary education up to $9.4 billion, general services to $11.6 billion, reflecting nonbudgetary costs like crowded schools and transportation systems.

Key Uncertainties

• Data limitations: Uncertainty in immigrant numbers, characteristics, geographic distribution, and government responses.
• Methodological choices: Different allocation methods for taxes and spending can affect cost estimates.
• Behavioral factors: Uncertainty about immigrants' compliance with taxes and states' spending adjustments.

Comparison with Other Studies

• Most studies focus on overall immigrants, not just the 2021-2023 surge.
• CBO's direct effects align with econometric methods, while potential effects use accounting approaches similar to some studies, but differences in methodology (e.g., distribution of immigrants) lead to varying net cost estimates.
• Other studies sometimes find similar or higher net costs due to different treatment of indirect effects or immigrant characteristics.

*Note: This summary extracts key points from the CBO report, with tables and figures derived from the original content. Data sources and methodology details are referenced in the full report.