20180817-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_32页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed analysis of stock performance and company results across various Asian markets, including China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, as of Friday, 17 August 2018. It also includes key indices, corporate events, and analyst insights on specific stocks.
Main Points by Region
China
- JD.com (JD US/HOLD/US $32.36/Target: US$ 36.00)
- 2Q18 Performance: Revenue growth was in line with expectations, but non-GAAP net income dropped significantly, missing estimates by 53%. Margins were under pressure due to investments in logistics and R&D.
- Downgrade: The analyst has downgraded JD.com to HOLD due to reduced visibility on margin expansion and lowered target price to US$36.00 from US$42.00.
- Key Financials:
- Revenue for 2Q18 was Rmb122.3b, up 31% yoy.
- Non-GAAP OPM dropped to 0.09% from 0.85% in 1Q18.
- Net profit (adj.) for 2018F was Rmb4,409.3m, and for 2019F was Rmb8,920.0m.
- Valuation: Target price based on 0.6x 2019F EV/sales, which is higher than Vipshop's 0.4x EV/sales but on par with JD's historical average.
Hong Kong
- Champion REIT (2778 HK/BUY/HK$5.18/Target: HK$6.14)
- 1H18 Performance: DPU was 12.53 HK cents, up 7% yoy, aligning with market expectations. The active office leasing market and strong retail performance contributed to this growth.
- Target Price: Maintained at HK$6.14 with an 18.5% upside.
- Key Financials:
- Total rental income increased to HK$1,303m in 1H18, up 10.1% yoy.
- Three Garden Road (TGR) and Langham Place Mall (LP) showed double-digit rental growth.
- Langham Place Office saw a decline in rental income due to lower occupancy.
- Outlook: Despite higher finance costs, the analyst remains BUY due to potential for improved occupancy and rent growth.
Key Market Indices (as of 17 Aug 2018)
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 25558.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 3.4 |
| S&P 500 | 2840.7 | 0.8 | (0.5) | 1.1 | 6.2 |
| FTSE 100 | 7556.4 | 0.8 | (2.4) | (0.9) | (1.7) |
| AS30 | 6412.6 | (0.0) | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| CSI 300 | 3276.7 | (0.5) | (3.6) | (5.0) | (18.7) |
| FSSTI | 3211.9 | (0.7) | (3.5) | (0.9) | (5.6) |
| HSCEI | 10479.7 | (0.5) | (4.9) | (1.1) | (10.5) |
| HSI | 27100.1 | (0.8) | (5.3) | (3.8) | (9.4) |
| JCI | 5783.8 | (0.6) | (4.6) | (1.3) | (9.0) |
| KLCI | 1777.3 | (0.5) | (1.5) | 2.3 | (1.1) |
| KOSPI | 2240.8 | (0.8) | (2.6) | (2.5) | (9.2) |
| Nikkei 225 | 22192.0 | (0.1) | (1.8) | (2.2) | (2.5) |
| SET | 1681.0 | 0.3 | (2.4) | 3.4 | (4.1) |
| TWSE | 10683.9 | (0.3) | (3.1) | (0.9) | 0.4 |
| BDI | 1727 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 26.4 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2181 | 0.1 | (0.8) | 1.0 | (8.7) |
| Brent Crude | 71 | 0.9 | (0.9) | (0.6) | 6.8 |
Top Picks and Sell Recommendations
BUY Recommendations
- Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH): Potential upside of 17.9%
- Gudang Garam (GGRM U): Potential upside of 18.7%
- PP Persero (PTPP U): Potential upside of 105.6%
- Bumi Armada (BAB MK): Potential upside of 52.5%
- OCBC (OCBC SP): Potential upside of 22.1%
- SingTel (ST SP): Potential upside of 30.2%
- Siam Cement (SCC TB): Potential upside of 19.4%
SELL Recommendation
- Hartalega (HART MK): Potential downside of 40.7%
Key Financial Assumptions
| Region | GDP (yoy) | 2017 | 2018F | 2019F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Euro Zone | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Japan | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Singapore | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Malaysia | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Thailand | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Indonesia | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| China | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | - | 2,783 | 2,400 | 2,500 |
| Brent (US$/bbl) | - | 55.00 | 67.00 | 66.50 |
Corporate Events (August 2018)
| Event | Venue | Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Luncheon with Galaxy Entertainment | Hong Kong | 17 Aug |
| Group Dinner with TCM Holdings | Hong Kong | 17 Aug |
| Greater China 2H18 Strategy & Outlook | Bangkok | 20-22 Aug |
| Roadshow with Galaxy Entertainment | Taipei | 21-22 Aug |
| Group Meeting with Xlep Holdings | Hong Kong | 24 Aug |
| Group Meeting with YiChang HEC | Hong Kong | 28 Aug |
| Roadshow with TCM Holdings | Shanghai | 30-31 Aug |
| Roadshow with Bright Scholar | Singapore | 3 Sep |
| Roadshow with Bright Scholar | Kuala Lumpur | 4 Sep |
| UOB Kay Hian Asian Gems Conference | Singapore | 9-10 Oct |
| UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional 1H2019 Strategy Conference | Kuala Lumpur | 13 Nov |
Analyst Insights
- JD.com: Downgraded to HOLD due to margin pressure and reduced growth visibility.
- Champion REIT: Maintained BUY due to strong rental performance and potential for continued growth.
- Analysts:
- Julia Pan Meng Yao (JD.com)
- Shaun Tan (Champion REIT)
Conclusion
The summary highlights the performance of key stocks and indices in the region, focusing on the challenges and opportunities faced by companies like JD.com and Champion REIT. It outlines the financials, corporate events, and analyst recommendations, providing a comprehensive overview of the market dynamics and investment outlook.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
