20150304-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_27页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of stock performance and financial results for several companies in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as key market indices and analyst recommendations for the period ending 04 March 2015. It includes results, updates, key assumptions, corporate events, and valuation insights.

Main Points by Region

China

China Unicom (762 HK)
- 4Q14 Results: Weak mobile ARPU, net profit dropped 26.6% yoy and 61.5% qoq to Rmb1.5b. The decline was due to stronger-than-expected mobile ARPU drop and one-off losses from asset disposal.
- Outlook: Near-term performance depends on competition in the 4G market. Management expects 3G coverage to reach 95% and 4G coverage to reach all prefecture-level cities by end-2015.
- Valuation: Maintained HOLD with a target price of HK$11.50. Net profit forecast for 2015 and 2016 were cut by 18% and 22%, respectively.
- Key Financials: Net turnover, EBITDA, and net profit are projected to increase in 2015-2017. Net margin is expected to improve from 4.2% in 2014 to 5.5% in 2017.
- Stock Impact: A price war in 4G services is anticipated, which may negatively affect revenue growth. Tower sharing may not significantly improve performance due to limited capital and reliance on share issuance.
JD.com (JD US)
- 4Q14 Results: Robust growth with net revenue of Rmb34.7b, up 73% yoy and 20% qoq. Non-GAAP net income also exceeded expectations.
- Outlook: Expected to continue strong top-line growth of 55% yoy in 2015 and 39% in 2016. GMV reached Rmb85.8b, up 117% yoy and 28% qoq.
- Valuation: Maintained BUY with a target price of US$35.00. Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2015 and 2016 were adjusted upward.
- Stock Impact: Strong GMV growth, progress in the Tencent-JD alliance, and expansion of logistics network are key catalysts for share price.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1 Day %	1 Week %	1 Month %	YTD %
DJIA	18203.4	(0.5)	(0.0)	3.0	2.1
S&P 500	2107.8	(0.5)	(0.4)	2.8	2.4
FTSE 100	6889.1	(0.7)	(0.9)	0.3	4.9
AS30	5902.9	(0.4)	0.2	3.0	9.5
CSI 300	3507.9	(2.6)	(0.4)	3.1	(0.7)
FSSTI	3422.1	0.5	(0.5)	0.1	1.7
HSI	24702.8	(0.7)	(0.2)	0.1	4.7
JCI	5474.6	(0.1)	1.1	3.0	4.7
KLCI	1821.3	0.2	0.1	1.0	3.4
KOSPI	2001.4	0.2	1.3	2.0	4.5
Nikkei 225	18815.2	(0.1)	1.1	6.4	7.8
SET	1562.8	(1.2)	(2.2)	(2.3)	4.4
TWSE	9605.8	0.0	0.8	1.0	3.2
BDI	553	0.9	7.2	(4.2)	(29.3)
CPO (RM/mt)	2350	2.2	4.1	10.6	2.3
Nymex Crude (US$/bbl)	51	1.9	2.5	(4.8)	(5.2)

Key Assumptions

Region	GDP (% yoy)	2013	2014	2015F
US	-	1.9	2.7	3.2
Euro Zone	-	-0.4	0.9	1.4
Japan	-	1.5	1.5	2.0
Singapore	-	3.9	3.2	3.3
Malaysia	-	4.7	5.9	5.2
Thailand	-	2.9	1.5	3.9
Indonesia	-	5.8	5.2	5.8
Hong Kong	-	2.9	3.5	3.7
China	-	7.7	7.2	7.0

Commodity	2014	2015F	2016F
Brent (US$/bbl)	99.45	65	70
CPO (US$/mt)	722	765	788
BDI	1,101	1,300	1,400

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Start Date	End Date
First Resources Luncheon	Kuala Lumpur	4 Mar	4 Mar
Indonesian Strategy	Singapore	11 Mar	11 Mar
Analyst Presentation	Kuala Lumpur	12 Mar	13 Mar
CIFI Holdings Roadshow	Singapore	16 Mar	16 Mar
ASEAN Conference	Taipei	17 Mar	18 Mar
China Property Analyst Presentation	Singapore & Kuala Lumpur	17 Mar	19 Mar
Indofood Sukses Maksur Roadshow	Singapore	27 Mar	27 Mar
Singamas Container Holdings Roadshow	Singapore	31 Mar	31 Mar
Singamas Container Holdings Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	1 Apr	1 Apr
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Corporate Roadshow	Taipei	30 Mar	31 Mar
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Corporate Roadshow	Singapore	2 Apr	2 Apr
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Corporate Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	3 Apr	3 Apr

Top Picks

BUY

Sunac China (1918 HK): Target Price HK$9.29, Potential Upside 30.7%
ICBC (1398 HK): Target Price HK$6.80, Potential Upside 21.9%
Bank Mandiri (BMRI J): Target Price Rp12,500, Potential Upside 5.0%
Gentling Msia (GENM MK): Target Price MK$4.47, Potential Upside 7.2%
DBS (DBS SP): Target Price SP$23.55, Potential Upside 22.3%
Pacific Radiance (PACRA SP): Target Price SP$1.00, Potential Upside 41.8%
Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB): Target Price TB$29.00, Potential Upside 27.2%
Sino Thai Engr (STEC TB): Target Price TB$30.25, Potential Upside 23.5%

SELL

UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target Price MK$10.00, Potential Downside 9.6%

Summary of Key Financial Metrics

China Unicom

Net Profit (2014-2017F): Rmb12,055.0 → Rmb13,260.8 → Rmb15,378.5 → Rmb17,279.3
EBITDA (2014-2017F): Rmb92,771.0 → Rmb97,545.1 → Rmb101,296.9 → Rmb103,810.3
EPS (2014-2017F): 189.5 → 104.8 → 130.6 → 299.4
PE (2014-2017F): 93.2 → 168.6 → 135.2 → 59.0
Net Margin (2014-2017F): -7.6% → 0.4% → 0.7% → 1.9%
ROE (2014-2017F): -37.6% → 1.9% → 4.1% → 14.2%

JD.com

Net Profit (2014-2017F): Rmb-8,796.7 → Rmb721.5 → Rmb1,663.5 → Rmb6,399.7
EBITDA (2014-2017F): Rmb-952.0 → Rmb909.4 → Rmb1,948.0 → Rmb7,898.0
EPS (2014-2017F): Rmb-0.11 → Rmb0.06 → Rmb0.10 → Rmb0.29
PE (2014-2017F): n.m. → 168.6 → 135.2 → 59.0
Net Margin (2014-2017F): -7.6% → 0.4% → 0.7% → 1.9%
ROE (2014-2017F): -37.6% → 1.9% → 4.1% → 14.2%

Key Insights

China Unicom faced weaker-than-expected 4Q14 results, primarily due to mobile ARPU decline and asset disposal losses. The company's outlook is tied to 4G market competition and tower sharing.
JD.com showed robust growth with strong GMV and net revenue, and the company is expected to continue its top-line expansion.
The 4G market in China is expected to see intensified competition, which may affect earnings growth.
Tower sharing may not deliver the expected benefits due to capital constraints and reliance on share issuance.
The Tencent-JD alliance and expansion of logistics infrastructure are key growth drivers for JD.com.
Key indices showed mixed performance with some notable gains in the Asia-Pacific region.
Corporate events are scheduled in key markets, providing potential opportunities for investor engagement.