2023-02-10-IMF-了解新冠疫情后的通货膨胀动态（英）_42页_1mb

The paper analyzes post-COVID inflation dynamics using a nonlinear Phillips curve model. The model incorporates a quasi-kinked demand schedule, where inflation transmission is flat under subdued inflationary pressures and steepens when inflation is high. This structure accounts for the Great Recession's modest inflation decline and the subsequent surge post-COVID. Cost-push shocks, when inflation is elevated, transmit more strongly, leading to higher inflation volatility and risk. Central banks face a tougher trade-off between inflation and output stabilization under high inflation. The model's nonlinearity underscores the role of real rigidities, such as strategic complementarities in price setting, and improves forecasting by capturing state-dependent shock effects. It highlights that inflation dynamics are more pronounced during economic booms and recessions, offering insights into policy responses during inflation scares.