2023-10-23-莱坊-Gold_Coast_New_Apartments_Insight_Q3_2023_5页_1mb

Gold Coast New Apartments Insight Summary

Core Content

This document provides a quarterly analysis of the high-density residential market and new apartment market on the Gold Coast for build-to-sell (BTS) properties, as of Q3 2023. It outlines trends in developer activity, construction costs, sales and rental performance, and future forecasts for the market.

Main Points

Developer Activity

• The share of residential development sites purchased for high-density development on the Gold Coast fell to 90.5% in the year to June 2023, down from 95.7% five years prior and below 98.3% from the previous year.
• Building approvals for apartments increased by 16.8% between June 2022 and June 2023, with 4,739 apartments approved.
• Developers' appetite for approval is higher than the 3,258 apartments approved five years ago.

Construction Costs

• The cost of construction in Australia rose by 7.1% in the year to June 2023.
• The estimated cost to build a standard finish apartment with a balcony ranged from $2,780/sqm to $3,335/sqm (plus GST).
• Prestige apartments had a higher cost, ranging from $4,025/sqm to $4,725/sqm.

Established Apartments Performance

• Sales volume of established apartments decreased by 28.9% in the year ending June 2023.
• The average days on market for established apartments remained at 60 days in the June 2023 quarter and one quarter prior.
• Capital values for established apartments increased by 8.1% over the year to June 2023, reaching a median value of $637,500 in the last quarter.

Rental Market

• Gross rental yields for established apartments rose by 10 bps to 5.30% in the June 2023 quarter.
• Rents increased by 4.0% for apartments and 18.2% over the past year, with median rents at $650 per week.
• Total residential rental vacancy on the Gold Coast was 1.2% at the end of June 2023, up from 0.9% in the previous quarter and 0.5% one year earlier.

New Apartments Performance

• A low number of high-density development sites are being purchased due to higher construction costs and a shortage of builders, impacting the delivery of future projects.
• New apartment prices have been on an upward trend, with a 4.2% increase in the June 2023 quarter and an 11.1% increase over the past year.
• Average new apartment prices are forecast to change by 10% at the end of 2023, 4% in 2024, and 2% in 2025.

New Apartment Pipeline

• Close to 8,900 new apartments were built in the five years to June 2023, with an average of 1,700 per year.
• This is forecast to average 2,400 per year in the next three years.

Prime Regions

• Prime regions on the Gold Coast include postcodes 4212, 4215-4221, 4226.
• New apartment prices in these regions ranged from $6,500 to $22,000/sqm, with an indicative rate of $16,000/sqm.
• New prime luxury apartment prices increased by 1.3% in the June 2023 quarter and were 8.1% higher over the past year.
• Prices are forecast to rise by 7% at the end of 2023, 5% in 2024, and 3% in 2025.

Site Sales & Price Performance

• Total volume of high-density residential sites sold was $136 million in the year to June 2023, down 71.3% from the previous year.
• Site values for apartments fell by 11.4% over the past year, but showed no change in the June 2023 quarter.
• In prime regions, site values increased by 11.0% over the past year, with no growth in the June 2023 quarter.

Market Forecasts

• Site Price Performance (2021–2025): 19%, 16%, - (2023), - (2024), - (2025), average 5%.
• New Apartment Pipeline (2021–2025): 1,000, 1,500, 500 (2023), 2,600 (2024), 2,300 (2025), average 1,800.
• New Apartment Price Performance (2021–2025): 17%, 5%, 7% (2023), 5% (2024), 3% (2025), average 5%.
• Residential Price Performance (2021–2025): 21%, 11%, 3% (2023), 4% (2024), 6% (2025), average 4%.
• Residential Rental Market (2021–2025): 19%, 18%, 9% (2023), 5% (2024), 3% (2025), average 6%.

Key Information

• Population Growth: The Gold Coast population grew by 2.2% in 2022, with a forecast of 2.1% annually in 2025.
• International Buyers: International buyers accounted for 10% of new property sales in Queensland in June 2023.
• Official Cash Rate: The official cash rate was 4.10% in September 2023, with a forecast of 3.40% in 2025.
• Economic Growth: Queensland's annual economic growth was 3.2% in 2022, with a forecast of 3.3% in 2025.

Conclusion

The Gold Coast new apartment market is experiencing a combination of rising prices, limited supply, and ongoing demand. While construction costs and developer activity are affecting the supply side, demand remains strong, supported by population growth and international buyer interest. The rental market is also showing positive trends, with increased yields and rents. However, the shortage of high-density development sites and delays in construction are posing challenges to future market supply.