20250217-国都证券-食品饮料行业周报_淡季基本面平淡_仍以配置为主线_5页_1008kb

market has risks and investments require caution. The research report focuses on the food and beverage industry, which saw a 23% sector-wide rebound this week, primarily due to systemic market recovery rather than improved fundamentals. The industry forecast is cautiously optimistic for the long term, with the absolute valuation currently at a low level and the focus shifting from basic operation resilience to the influence of macro policies and market capital flows.

In terms of core views, although the Spring Festival sales have concluded relatively smoothly, a weak demand environment has entered the post-holiday low season, which is anticipated to lead to a continued underperformance in operating metrics in the first half of 2025. Although the industry is profoundly influenced by the economic recovery base and consumer confidence factors, reports indicate that Maotai box prices remain stabilised near 2250 yuan per bottle. The industry players from Moutai, Wuliangye, to the mid-tier companies have adopted various strategies such as controlled supply and price adjustments, aiming to maintain a bottom price for the market.

In the halo category, it is noted that the market sentiment towards the industry is sensitive to systemic factors rather than the actual business performance. Consequently, the recommendation centres on the bull case of the entire industry over the long run, emphasizing the importance of holding positions in the leading players such as Moutai and Wuliangye. On the other hand, diversification in the broader food and beverage field that includes fast-moving consumer goods, with examples like instant food, fermented sauces, and packaged snacks, has the potential to yield higher returns due to policy-driven marginal improvements and better gross profit margins.

The analysis suggests that certain factors such as the real economy performance and fiscal policy, particularly the consumption promotion policies, could provide significant upside. Recommending companies like Yili, Tianwei Foods, and the foodservice players Anji Food, as well as brewing companies Hebei燕京啤酒, the core pillar stocks in terms of market capitalization and gross margin generation still maintain their investment appeal.

However, risks remain significant, including, but not limited to, irrational policy expectations, oversupply in some sectors, cost inflation, and the international positioning of the products. The long-term macro cycle does not look to be turning quickly, and the premium enjoyed by alcohol stocks may face downward pressure if fundamental growth remains weak.