那提西银行-全球-经济理论-金融增长对货币政策有什么影响？-20180413-7页_831kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the implications of the growing weight of finance and financial globalisation on monetary policy. It highlights that the increasing interconnectedness of financial markets and the expansion of financial assets and liabilities have made traditional monetary policy frameworks less effective and more complex.

Main Points

1. The Impact of Financial Globalisation on Monetary Policy

• Growth of Finance: Despite financial crises and recessions, the financial sector's weight in the global economy continues to increase.
• Definition of Finance: Finance is defined as the sum of outstanding credit, bonds, market capitalisation, and money in circulation.
• Financial Interconnectedness: Countries are increasingly financially interconnected, as evidenced by rising gross external assets and gross external debt.
• Monetary Policy Effects: Monetary policy in one country now has significant effects on others due to high correlations in financial markets.

2. Financial Shocks and Their Spread

• Examples of Shocks: The 2013 US quantitative easing exit caused massive capital outflows and exchange rate collapses in emerging markets.
• Subprime Crisis Spread: The US subprime crisis spread globally through cross shareholding and funding relationships.
• Asset Write-Downs: Table 1 shows the extent of asset write-downs by banks in the US and Europe during the crisis.

3. Implications for Monetary Policy

• Traditional Framework: Previously, countries used monetary policies focused on domestic inflation and growth with free capital flows and flexible exchange rates.
• Untenable Choice: This traditional approach is no longer viable due to the growing cross-border effects of monetary policy.
• Two Options: Either international coordination of monetary policies or the reintroduction of capital controls.
• Macroprudential Policies: These are needed to address financial stability risks, especially when expansionary monetary policies lead to increased debt and asset price bubbles.

4. Conflict of Objectives

• Macroeconomic vs. Financial Stability: Expansionary monetary policies can lead to financial instability by increasing borrowing, squeezing risk premia, and inflating real estate prices.
• Data on Debt and Risk Premia: Charts 8A and 8B show the rise in public, household, and corporate debt, and the narrowing of credit spreads in OECD countries.

5. Specialisation in Policy Tools

• Interest Rate Policy: Should focus on macroeconomic objectives.
• Macroprudential Policy: Should focus on maintaining financial stability through balance sheet ratios, debt limits, and loan-to-value ratios.

Key Information

• Global Financial Interconnectedness: The rise in gross external assets and debt highlights the increasing interdependence of financial systems across countries.
• Monetary Policy Coordination: Necessary to mitigate the cross-border effects of policy decisions.
• Capital Controls: May be required as an alternative to coordination if the former is not feasible.
• Macroprudential Policies: Essential to balance macroeconomic goals with financial stability.
• Risks of Expansionary Policies: Can lead to financial instability, asset price bubbles, and increased risk premia.

Conclusion

The increasing weight of finance and financial globalisation necessitate a rethinking of monetary policy. Traditional approaches with domestic focus and free capital flows are no longer sufficient. Instead, a combination of international coordination or capital controls, along with macroprudential tools, is required to manage both macroeconomic and financial stability objectives effectively.

Disclaimer

• The document is for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and not intended for general distribution.
• It does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation.
• It is not a financial analysis and does not comply with legal requirements for investment research independence.
• Natixis does not assume liability for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
• The views expressed are those of the authors and may differ.