那提西银行-全球-经济理论-“经济民族主义”又回来了：以什么形式？为什么？-20171211-9页_575kb

Flash Economics: The Return of Economic Nationalism

Core Content

The document titled "Flash Economics" from 11 December 2017 discusses the resurgence of economic nationalism and explores the various forms it has taken, along with the underlying reasons for its return. The author, Patrick Artus, highlights the shift from the previously dominant Washington Consensus principles of free trade and capital mobility, to a more protectionist and nationalist economic approach.

Main Forms of Economic Nationalism

1. Protectionism

   • Demand for local production and content.
   • National preference policies (e.g., the "Buy European Act" modelled on the "Buy American Act").
   • Introduction of customs duties (e.g., Trump's proposal for a 20% tax on US imports).
   • These measures are contributing to a slowdown in global trade and the globalization of trade.

2. Protection against Foreign Investment

   • Countries are increasingly seeking to protect strategic industries from foreign acquisition.
   • This has led to a decrease in foreign direct investment (Chart 2).

3. Rejection of Federalism

   • Opposition to a common euro-zone budget and income transfers between member states.
   • Examples include regional movements like Catalonia, Northern Italy, and Flanders.

4. Return of Capital Controls

   • Implemented in countries like China in 2017 to manage economic volatility.
   • These controls are particularly relevant for emerging economies (Chart 4).

5. Use of Exchange Rates

   • Currency depreciation is being used as a tool to stimulate economic growth.
   • Examples include the euro zone (2014), Japan (2013), and the UK (2016).
   • This practice is associated with "currency wars" and lack of coordination.

6. Absence of International Economic Policy Coordination

   • Non-coordinated tax reductions and wage cuts.
   • Examples include corporate tax competition in the euro zone (Chart 6) and Spain's wage reduction strategy (Chart 7).
   • This lack of coordination is inefficient and exacerbates economic instability.

Key Reasons for the Return of Economic Nationalism

• Slower Global Growth: The "global pie" is shrinking, especially in industry (Chart 8 and 9). This has increased competition for market share.
• Need to Preserve Industry: Countries recognize the importance of industry in providing skilled jobs and maintaining trade balance.
• Corporate Ownership Importance: The nationality of shareholders influences investment and research locations. This has led to protectionist measures against foreign buyers.
• Income Inequality in Large Blocs: Economic nationalism is driven by public perception of growing inequality within and between regions of large economic blocs (e.g., euro zone) and within countries (Tables 2–5).

Conclusion

The resurgence of economic nationalism is a major risk to the global economy. It undermines the benefits of productive specialization, hinders international investment, increases regional inequality, and leads to inefficient and uncoordinated economic policies. These trends are likely to result in prolonged trade and investment tensions, as well as economic inefficiencies.

Disclaimer Summary

• The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and cannot be shared with third parties without prior written consent.
• It does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation or a financial analysis.
• No liability is accepted for any use of the document or its contents.
• The views expressed are the personal opinions of the authors and do not represent the views of Natixis or its affiliates.
• The information is based on public data and may be subject to change without notice.
• Regulatory compliance is emphasized, with Natixis being supervised and regulated by various financial authorities in Europe, the UK, and the Middle East.

Risk Factors and Rewards

• The document acknowledges risk factors associated with the return of economic nationalism.
• It also outlines potential rewards for certain economic strategies, though these are not guaranteed.
• The views in the document are subject to change at any time.

Regulatory Information

• Natixis is supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB).
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• In the UK, it is regulated by the FCA and the Prudential Regulation Authority.
• In Germany, it is supervised by the BaFin.
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Author and Contact

• Patrick Artus
• Email: patrick.artus@natixis.com
• Website: www.research.natixis.com
• Social Media: @PatrickArtus

This summary captures the core content, main forms, key reasons, and implications of the return of economic nationalism as outlined in the document.