【罗兰贝格】罗兰贝格欧洲碳捕集利用与封存市场研究报告分阶段路径市场潜力及关键挑战_26页_5mb

Summary of CCUS Rising?

Core Content

This report explores the potential for a robust CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage) market in Europe, emphasizing its importance in achieving global decarbonization goals and the Paris Accords targets. It outlines the current status of CCUS technologies, their role in the decarbonization of key industries, and the projected timeline for their development in Europe.

Main Viewpoints

• CCUS is no longer a niche technology but is becoming essential in the broader context of decarbonization.
• The Paris Accords target remains unmet, with a significant emissions gap of 26 Gt CO₂ by 2030, highlighting the need for CCUS.
• CCUS is critical for industries like cement, steel, and chemicals, where alternatives are limited or insufficient.
• The CCUS value chain includes capture, transport, utilization, and storage, each requiring specific infrastructure and investment.
• A CCUS economy could reach a value of USD 1 trillion by 2050, driven by the need to scale up the technology.
• Regulatory and financial conditions are aligning to support the growth of the CCUS market in Europe by 2030.

Key Information

Why CCUS?

• CCUS is not new; it has been used since the 1970s, primarily for enhanced oil recovery (EOR).
• CO₂ capture is essential for industries with limited alternatives to reduce emissions.
• The economic viability of CCUS is expected to improve when EU ETS prices exceed EUR 150/ton CO₂.
• CCUS is the most important decarbonization route for the cement industry due to its critical role in infrastructure development.

The CCUS Economy

• The CCUS economy encompasses infrastructure types such as emitting plants, pipelines, terminals, utilization plants, and storage facilities.
• CO₂ utilization includes applications in enhanced oil recovery, food and beverage, greenhouse horticulture, and synthetic fuel production.
• CO₂ storage involves depleted oil and gas fields, saline aquifers, basalt formations, and coal seams.
• CCUS value chain is currently underdeveloped and requires significant investment and coordination across multiple players.

Projected Timeline for Europe

Phase 1: 2020–2030

• Establishment of the European CCUS backbone.
• CCUS hubs will be developed, mainly around the North Sea.
• Top-down estimates suggest a market volume of 100–150 MtCO₂/year by 2030.
• A more conservative estimate of 50 MtCO₂/year is considered realistic for 2030.
• Storage capacity in Europe is expected to be sufficient to meet the projected needs.
• CCUS hubs will be categorized into regular and large-scale types, with regular hubs handling 1–3 MtCO₂/year and large-scale hubs handling 3–10 MtCO₂/year.

Phase 2: 2030–2040

• Scale-up and expansion of the CCUS economy.
• New emitters will be integrated, and terminal and storage facilities will be expanded.
• CO₂ transport will increase, with more emitters from regions distant from ports.
• Market volume is projected to reach 250 MtCO₂/year by 2040–2050.

Key Stakeholders and Business Models

• Large-scale emitters (e.g., cement, hydrogen, waste-to-energy, and gas-fired power plants) are expected to be first movers in the CCUS market.
• Utilization plants will be integrated with emitting plants and terminals.
• Shippers are likely to use on-board CO₂ capture equipment to offload CO₂ at terminals.
• CCUS hubs will serve as central points for capture, transport, and storage.

Challenges and Opportunities

• The value chain is not yet fully developed, and infrastructure investment is still required.
• Synchronization of investment decisions among different players is crucial.
• Regulatory support, including EU ETS reforms and country-specific carbon taxes, is expected to drive CCUS adoption.
• Financial incentives, such as the EU Innovation Fund and Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD), are supporting project development.

Practical Recommendations

• Invest in CCUS infrastructure early to take advantage of the economic opportunities.
• Collaborate with other stakeholders to ensure synchronized investment.
• Leverage existing projects and regulatory frameworks to reduce risk.
• Focus on high-purity CO₂ streams for utilization and storage.
• Monitor and adapt to evolving policies and market conditions.

Conclusion

The European CCUS market is poised for significant growth by 2030 and is expected to become a key player in the global decarbonization effort. With regulatory, financial, and technological conditions improving, CCUS is becoming a viable and necessary solution for industries unable to fully decarbonize through other means. The development of CCUS hubs and infrastructure is critical to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.