2025-06-10-Jefferies-GFL（GFL）_GFL寻求将基础设施资产货币化的报告_8页_243kb

GFL Environmental Inc. Equity Research Summary

Overview

GFL Environmental Inc. (ticker: GFL) is an ecological solutions provider operating in Canada through segments including Solid Waste, Infrastructure and Soil Remediation, Liquid Waste, and Corporate.

Analyst Recommendation

• Rating: Buy.
• Price Target: $60.00 (18% upside from current price of $50.70).
• Key Implication: The report highlights potential value in monetizing GFL's stake in Green Infrastructure Partners (GIP).

Asset Monetization

• GFL retains a 45% interest in GIP after divesting the business in 2022, receiving C$224mm in cash.
• GFL is considering selling a stake in GIP, aimed at a C$5bn ($3.7bn) valuation, implying a 16.5x 2025E EBITDA multiple.
• Pro-forma 2025 EBITDA is estimated at C$300mm, resulting in ~C$1.44bn in equity for GFL post sale.
• Proceeds from monetization are expected to fund further M&A in the solid waste sector, leveraging GFL's M&A strategy.

Financial Projections

• 2025E EBITDA: C$300mm.
• Margins improving to 30% in 2025E.
• Leverage assumptions of 5-6x for GIP.

Risks and Valuation

• Risks: Competitive pressures, lower CPI, declining recycling prices, regulatory changes.
• Valuation: Based on P/FCF multiple, considering historical range and peer group, with potential investments in solid waste M&A opportunities.

Analyst Certifications

• Stephanie Moore, Harold Antor, and PJ Sullivan certify their views reflect personal opinions and are independent, with no direct compensation tied to recommendations.