2025-05-19-Jefferies-TXNM能源（TXNM）_TXNM将被黑石基础设施收购第二次会成功吗_8页_115kb

TXNM Energy Equity Research Summary

Transaction and Valuation

1. Acquisition: TXNM Energy agreed to be acquired by Blackstone Infrastructure for $61.25 per share in cash, reflecting an 18.2x 2027 EPS estimate and a 23% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP).
   • The deal represents a $11.5Bn Enterprise Value, backing 9.3x EBITDA and a 1.7x 2025 revenue growth (RAG).
2. Ratings & Targets:
   • Jefferies Rating: BUY with a $58.00 price target (+10% upside).
   • The $61.25 offer trades with a $2/sh adjustment for five projected dividends.
   • Equity issuance of $800Mn pre-merger provides funding certainty, though concerns remain about potential valuation discounts.
3. Premium Context: The bid is a 17% premium to Avangrid/PNM Resources' 2020 price, higher than typical deals but reflective of high-growth potential.

Company Overview

1. Business: TXNM Energy operates through subsidiaries PNM and TNMP:
   • PNM: Integrated utility in New Mexico (550k+ customers), focusing on emissions-free energy by 2040.
   • TNMP: Transmits and distributes energy in Texas (260k+ customers).
2. Valuation Basis: 2027 sum-of-the-parts analysis; low-growth valuation reflects regulatory stability but moderate risks.
3. Funding Plan: Ambitious growth requires $61Bn investment by 2029, funded by equity issuance ($1.3Bn total) and no incremental debt.

Key Risks

1. Regulatory: Approval from NMPRC, PUC of Texas, FERC, and Justice Department (similar to 2020 PNM deal); NMPRC's change of control审查 may delay approvals.
2. Operational: Extreme weather, regulatory prudency, cybersecurity, labor agreements, and capital project execution.
3. Market: Equity financing uncertainty, interest rate volatility, and commodity price fluctuations.

Analyst Notes

• Jefferies expects a wider spread to the $61.25 offer price due to regulatory risks, contrasting with the 2020 Avangrid deal.
• Stakeholders support the sale to a "more qualified acquirer," and closing the New Mexico Gas Co. deal could validate regulatory approval pathways.

Investor Takeaways

• The high premium discounts near-term growth potential but regulatory and equity financing risks temper enthusiasm.
• Buy rating indicates confidence in achieving 15%+ total returns, contingent on regulatory outcomes and equity market conditions.