20181213-USDA-Rice_Outlook_25页_1mb

Rice Outlook Summary (December 13, 2018)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2018/19 market year, highlighting changes in supply, use, and prices.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Supply and Use

• Import Forecast Raised: The U.S. 2018/19 import forecast was increased by 0.5 million cwt to a record 28.5 million cwt, up 6% from the previous year.
  • Medium- and short-grain imports: Up 41% year-over-year, driven by increased purchases from China to Puerto Rico.
  • Long-grain imports: Remain at a record 23.5 million cwt, up less than 1% from the previous year.
• Production Forecast: U.S. rice production for 2018/19 remains at 218.3 million cwt, a 23% increase from the previous year.
  • Long-grain: Up 24% to 158.6 million cwt, primarily grown in the South.
  • Medium- and short-grain: Combined production at 59.7 million cwt, up 18% from the previous year.
• Supply Forecast: Increased by 0.5 million cwt to 276.2 million cwt, up 10% from the previous year.
  • Long-grain: 202.4 million cwt, up 11%.
  • Medium- and short-grain: 72.3 million cwt, up 7%.
• Domestic and Residual Use: Forecast at 133.0 million cwt, down 1% from the previous year.
  • Long-grain: Up 4.5% to 103.0 million cwt.
  • Medium- and short-grain: Down 17% to 30.0 million cwt.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 44.2 million cwt, up 50% from the previous year.
  • Long-grain: 32.4 million cwt, up 60%.
  • Medium- and short-grain: 10.3 million cwt, up 36%.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Increased to 19.0% for all rice, up from 13.3% in the previous year.

Prices

• Season-Average Farm Prices (SAFP):
  • California medium- and short-grain: Raised to $17.80-$18.80 per cwt, up 50 cents from $18.70.
  • Southern medium- and short-grain: Raised to $11.70-$12.70 per cwt, up 10 cents from $11.70.
  • All rice: Projected at $11.60-$12.60 per cwt, up 10 cents from the previous forecast.
• October Cash Prices:
  • Long-grain rough rice: $10.90 per cwt, down 50 cents from September.
  • Southern medium- and short-grain rough rice: $11.70 per cwt, down $1.00 from September.
  • California medium- and short-grain rough rice: $17.30 per cwt, down $1.00 from September.
  • U.S. medium- and short-grain rough rice: $15.60 per cwt, down 90 cents from September.
  • U.S. all rice rough rice: $11.90 per cwt, down 30 cents from September.

International Outlook

Production Forecasts

• Global Production: Raised to 491.1 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast, but still 1% below the year-earlier record.
• Key Revisions:
  • Nigeria: Raised by 1.0 million tons to 4.8 million tons, due to higher area and yield.
  • Nepal: Raised by 0.2 million tons to 3.53 million tons, due to higher yield.
  • Spain (EU): Raised by 30,000 tons to 585,000 tons.
  • Russia: Raised by 40,000 tons to 670,000 tons.
  • Venezuela: Raised by 20,000 tons to 170,000 tons.
  • Australia: Lowered by 300,000 tons to 110,000 tons, due to drought and lower area.
  • Thailand: Lowered by 0.5 million tons to 20.7 million tons, due to lower area and yield.
  • Cuba: Lowered by 50,000 tons to 325,000 tons.
  • South Korea: Lowered by 7,000 tons to 3.87 million tons.

Trade Forecasts

• Global Trade: Projected at 48.3 million tons for 2019, down 0.9 million tons from the previous forecast, but still fractionally above 2018.
• Export Forecasts Lowered:
  • Australia: Down 210,000 tons to 50,000 tons.
  • Thailand: Down 700,000 tons to 10,300 tons.
• Import Forecasts Lowered:
  • Cuba: Down 50,000 tons.
  • EU: Down 50,000 tons.
  • Indonesia: Down 400,000 tons.
  • Nigeria: Down 600,000 tons.

Price Trends

• Thailand:
  • Regular milled white rice: Prices increased by 1%.
  • 100%-grade B milled white rice: Quoted at $395 per ton, up $3 from the previous week.
  • 15%-grade brokens: Quoted at $378 per ton, up $3 from the previous week.
  • Premium jasmine rice: Quoted at $1,053 per ton, down $30 from the previous week.
• Vietnam:
  • Regular milled white rice: Prices decreased by 3-4%.
  • 5%-grade broken: Quoted at $400 per ton, down $15 from the previous week.
• U.S. Long-grain Milled Rice:
  • Export prices: Unchanged at $550 per ton.
  • Rough rice prices: Up $5 to $300 per ton.
• California Long-grain Milled Rice:
  • Domestic sales: Quoted at $800 per ton, down $20 from the previous week.
  • Export prices: Quoted at $925 per ton, unchanged since early October.

Key Information

• U.S. Export Forecast Raised: U.S. 2018/19 export forecast was increased by 3.0 million cwt to 32.0 million cwt, primarily due to reduced Australian exports.
• Global Market Trends:
  • Production: Increased slightly to 491.1 million tons, but still below the previous year's record.
  • Consumption: Forecast at a record 489.6 million tons, up 1.2 million tons from the previous forecast.
  • Ending Stocks: Global ending stocks are projected at 163.3 million tons, the largest on record.
• Regional Impacts:
  • Australia: Severe drought sharply reduced production and exports.
  • Thailand: Reduced production and exports, but increased prices for some grades.
  • Vietnam: Reduced prices, likely due to lack of new orders.
  • Nigeria and Nepal: Increased production due to favorable conditions and new data series.