世界银行-土耳其贫困与公平评估（英）-2025_95页_3mb

Summary of Türkiye Poverty and Equity Assessment

Overview

Türkiye has made substantial progress in reducing poverty over the past decade, primarily driven by economic growth and increases in labor incomes. Poverty rates halved from 20.1% to 9.84% between 2007 and 2020, with significant regional convergence and demographic improvements. However, progress stalled after 2016, and regressive trends emerged, reversing some gains. The assessment highlights the importance of balanced growth, progressive policies, and enhancing social protection to sustain poverty reduction.

Poverty Trends

• Poverty rates declined steadily from 2007 to 2016, driven by income growth, especially labor incomes, and redistribution. By 2020, chronic poverty (frequent poverty spells) declined by 50% (from 24.3% to 10.7%), though it saw a temporary uptick in 2016-2019.
• Key drivers: Growth in labor incomes (especially for the poor) and public transfers reduced poverty. Urban and regional disparities narrowed, with eastern regions making the most progress.
• Children remain the most vulnerable group (43% of the poor in 2020), and large households are disproportionately affected.

Inequality and Shared Prosperity

• Inequality (Gini index) followed a V-shaped trajectory, declining until 2013 and rising afterward, particularly post-2016.
• "Shared prosperity" (income growth of the poorest 40%) slowed, becoming regressive from 2016-2020. The poorest segments benefited more from public transfers during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), stabilizing poverty rates.
• Regional inequality decreased, but within-group disparities increased. Pension incomes exacerbated inequality, while labor incomes had a more equalizing effect.

Poverty Dynamics

• Chronic poverty declined significantly over the period, but poverty persistence increased from 2016-2019 due to wage stagnation and regressive growth. Vulnerability to poverty (likelihood of being poor in the next period) rose from 24% to 18.6% (2007-2020).
• Poverty dynamics showed that households with unemployed or out-of-labor-force heads had longer poverty spells, while those in formal employment or services reduced poverty incidence.
• A middle-class "vulnerability" threshold at $12/day was identified, classifying 71.5% of the population as either middle-class or vulnerable, with 9.84% classified as poor by 2020.

Key Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

• Prioritize Productive Jobs: Strengthen labor market functioning, invest in education, and formalize employment to sustain inclusive growth.
• Promote Female Labor Force Participation: Enhance childcare supports and flexible work arrangements to leverage women's economic contributions, which positively impact poverty reduction.
• Strengthen Social Protection: Expand Basic Income/assistance programs, improve targeting, and address regressive transfers to protect vulnerable groups during economic downturns.
• Monitor Inequality and Vulnerability: Track inequality and poverty dynamics closely to ensure policies support shared prosperity and prevent regressive trends.

The assessed successes and challenges underscore the need for balanced, progressive policies to achieve sustained poverty reduction and shared prosperity in Türkiye.