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Zambia Poverty and Equity Assessment: Turning Things Around After a Lost Decade

Core Content

Zambia is one of the poorest and most unequal countries in the world. In 2022, 64.3% of the population, or about 12.6 million individuals, lived on less than $2.15 a day, the sixth highest globally. Despite a relatively high GDP per capita, this level of poverty is misaligned with the country's economic status. The Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, stood at 51.5 in 2022, significantly above the World Bank's high-inequality threshold of 40, placing Zambia as the fourth most unequal country in the region and sixth globally.

Main Trends and Findings

• Poverty is entrenched and multidimensional:

  • Extreme poverty, defined by consumption below the food poverty line, increased from 71% in 2010 to 77% in 2022.
  • Overlapping deprivations are widespread, with 70% of children suffering from at least two deprivations and 30% from at least four.
  • Chronic malnutrition and child stunting remain at unacceptably high levels, with the under-five stunting rate at 35%, above the SSA and LMI averages.

• Structural Vulnerability:

  • Structural factors, such as low endowments and poor access to services, drive most of the poverty vulnerability (80%).
  • The country's performance in access to electricity, water, and sanitation is among the worst in the region.
  • Human capital deprivation remains high, with poor education and health outcomes.

• Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction:

  • The poverty-reducing impact of economic growth is weak in Zambia, especially in rural areas.
  • Growth in urban areas has not kept up with population growth, leading to a rise in urban poverty.
  • From 2015 to 2022, urban poverty incidence increased by 8.5 percentage points, while rural poverty remained stagnant at over 75%.

• Urban vs. Rural Dynamics:

  • Lusaka has shown more pro-poor growth than other urban areas, with consumption growth among low-skilled workers contributing significantly to poverty reduction.
  • Rural areas near urban centers have experienced a decline in poverty incidence, while other rural areas have seen an increase.
  • Access to assets and services has improved in near-urban areas, but disparities persist in other rural regions.

• Agricultural Sector:

  • Small-scale agriculture is a major source of livelihood but is associated with low incomes and high poverty rates.
  • Transitioning to medium-scale farming correlates with lower poverty incidence.
  • Agricultural policies, including maize-centric approaches and market distortions, have hindered productivity and growth.
  • Non-agricultural activities are growing slowly, and rural-urban divides in access to services and infrastructure remain significant.

• Climate and Macroeconomic Shocks:

  • Climate shocks, particularly droughts, have had a significant impact on poverty, especially in rural areas.
  • The 2024 drought led to severe food insecurity and a halt in growth.
  • Macroeconomic volatility, including the 2020 external debt default, has worsened poverty and inequality.

Key Recommendations

• Promote high, sustained, and private-sector-led economic growth:

  • This should generate quality jobs and improve poverty reduction.
  • The CEM and CPSD highlight the need for policy reforms to unlock economic transformation.

• Enhance productivity and access in agriculture:

  • Address policy distortions and improve access to inputs like fertilizers, irrigation, and hybrid seeds.
  • Support small-scale farmers to transition to medium-scale farming where possible.

• Improve access to assets and infrastructure:

  • Invest in electricity, water, sanitation, and digital infrastructure in rural areas.
  • Leverage asset accumulation in near-urban areas to drive consumption growth and poverty reduction.

• Strengthen labor markets and skills development:

  • Address unemployment, particularly among the lower-educated workforce.
  • Promote formal employment and skills training to improve labor market inclusivity.

• Address structural inequality and service gaps:

  • Prioritize public investment in rural areas to close the rural-urban divide.
  • Ensure that public services are delivered efficiently and equitably.

• Enhance resilience to climate and economic shocks:

  • Strengthen macroeconomic stability and social protection mechanisms.
  • Implement climate-smart policies to support vulnerable populations and ensure sustainable development.

Main Viewpoints

• Zambia's poverty and inequality are deeply rooted in structural underinvestment, poor policies, and climate vulnerabilities.
• Economic growth has been weak and uneven, with limited impact on poverty reduction, especially in rural areas.
• Lusaka has shown more pro-poor growth than other urban areas, suggesting the potential for inclusive urban development.
• Rural areas near urban centers have experienced better outcomes due to improved access to assets and services.
• Climate shocks, particularly droughts, have exacerbated poverty and inequality, especially in rural regions.
• The country is at risk of remaining in a low-income status due to poor growth projections and structural challenges.

Critical Information

• Poverty Trends: Rural poverty has remained above 75% for over 15 years, while urban poverty spiked by 8.5 percentage points between 2015 and 2022.
• Asset Accumulation: In near-urban areas, asset accumulation has been more pro-poor, with electricity, solar/biofuel, and phone ownership playing a key role.
• Agricultural Policies: Maize-centric policies and market distortions have limited agricultural productivity and growth.
• Macroeconomic Volatility: The 2020 external debt default and weak public investment have hindered development and increased poverty.
• Climate Risks: Droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe, threatening food security and economic growth.
• Policy Priorities: The report calls for structural reforms, improved public investment, and climate-resilient development strategies to address poverty and inequality.

Conclusion

Zambia faces significant challenges in reducing poverty and inequality, but there are pockets of hope, particularly in urbanized rural areas and Lusaka. Addressing structural barriers, improving access to services and infrastructure, and promoting inclusive and resilient growth are critical for turning the country's trajectory around. The report underscores the need for coordinated policy action, effective public investment, and climate adaptation strategies to ensure sustainable poverty reduction.