2025-04-13-世界银行-土耳其贫困与公平评估（英）_95页_4mb

Türkiye Poverty and Equity Assessment Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of poverty and inequality trends in Türkiye from 2007 to 2020, with a special focus on poverty dynamics, income mobility, and the impact of social assistance and macroeconomic factors. It is based on the World Bank Group Poverty and Equity Global Practice's Poverty Assessment 2.0 Guidance note and integrates data from various sources, including the Household Budget Survey (HBS) and the Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC). The assessment aims to inform policy decisions and support evidence-based policymaking.

Main Findings

• Poverty Reduction: Türkiye has made significant progress in reducing poverty over the past two decades. The poverty headcount rate dropped from over 20% in 2007 to 9.84% in 2020. Chronic poverty also declined from 24% to 10%.
• Vulnerability to Poverty: The vulnerability to poverty decreased from 25% to 17% during the same period.
• Income Growth: The main driver of poverty reduction was income growth, particularly from labor. Labor incomes grew in a progressive manner, especially between 2009 and 2016, with the poor experiencing higher growth rates than the rich.
• Regional Convergence: There was a convergence in income levels between less and more developed regions, with the gap in poverty rates narrowing over time.
• Demographic Profiles: Children under 14 had the highest poverty rates, with 43% of the poor population being children. The elderly (aged 60+) had the lowest poverty rates, below 3%. Larger households (more than four members) had higher poverty rates and were more likely to remain in poverty for longer periods.
• Education and Poverty: Higher levels of education were strongly correlated with better welfare outcomes. Individuals with tertiary education had a poverty rate of just over 1%, and none of them experienced 4-year poverty spells.
• Women's Contribution: Women's income and employment rates positively contributed to poverty reduction, especially during 2016-2020, helping to mitigate the negative effects of declining male employment and income.
• Social Assistance: Public transfers, particularly pensions and non-pension transfers, played a role in poverty reduction. However, their impact was modest, reducing poverty by 1.4 percentage points in 2018.
• Inequality Trends: Inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient and GE(0) index, showed a decline until mid-2010s, but reversed during 2016-2019. The top 40% experienced higher income growth than the bottom 20%, while the bottom 20% saw a decline in per capita income.
• Impact of Inflation: Inflation had a significant impact on different income groups. The poor were disproportionately affected by rising food prices, while the top 10% were impacted by transportation costs due to fuel and vehicle price increases.
• Earthquake Impact: The 2023 earthquake could lead to a rise in poverty rates, with projections suggesting a potential increase to 12.4% if inequality increases by 2 standard deviations as measured by the Gini coefficient.

Key Policy Insights

• Inclusive Growth: Policies that promote inclusive growth, especially labor income growth, are crucial for continued poverty reduction.
• Progressive Redistribution: While economic growth was the main driver, redistribution mechanisms, such as social assistance, should be strengthened to ensure that the poorest segments of society benefit more.
• Monitoring Inequality: Close monitoring of inequality outcomes is necessary to sustain the gains made in poverty reduction.
• Gender Inclusion: Increasing women's participation in the labor force can help maintain the trend of poverty reduction.
• Regional Equity: Efforts should be made to ensure that less developed regions benefit from economic growth and development initiatives.
• Long-term Vulnerability: The study highlights the importance of understanding poverty dynamics, including the likelihood of entering and exiting poverty, and the characteristics of those who remain in poverty for extended periods.

Methodology and Data

• The assessment uses panel and cross-sectional data from HBS and SILC surveys.
• It applies a consistent welfare aggregate and poverty line for measuring poverty rates over time.
• A multidimensional poverty measure (MPM) is introduced to capture non-monetary aspects of poverty.
• The study explores the impact of different income sources on poverty and inequality, and decomposes changes in poverty and inequality into growth and redistribution components.

Conclusion

Türkiye has made substantial progress in poverty reduction and shared prosperity, but challenges remain. The reversal in poverty reduction during 2016-2019 underscores the need for continued focus on inclusive growth, progressive redistribution, and monitoring of inequality. The assessment serves as a valuable resource for policymakers and researchers, offering a detailed and integrated view of poverty and equity in the country.