2025-06-04-Jefferies-奋进矿业（EDV）_布基纳法索的（相对较低的）营商成本_10页_238kb

Endeavour Mining (EDV CN) Equity Research Summary

Key Highlights:

• Regulatory Change: Burkina Faso's government is accelerating the implementation of a 15% free carried interest on mining companies, effective May 2025. This change, originally part of the 2024 mining code, reduces Endeavour's 2025 FCF by $16M but may be offset by VAT refunds, potentially minimizing the impact on FCF.

• Financial Projections: Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating and sets a new 3-month price target of C$48, a +9% increase from the current price. Endeavour's 2025F adjusted EPS is C$2.25M, FCF post-working capital is C$542M.

• Valuation: The target price is based on blended P/NAV (0.8x) and EV/EBITDA (4.5x) multiples. The stock trades at a 11% FCF yield in 2025/26, higher than the peer group's 9%/11%.

• Catalysts: Key drivers include:

  • FCF generation in 2025/26;
  • Biosolids expansion at Sabodala-Massawa (largely fresh ore by 2026);
  • Lafigue TSF expansion to 41Mt in 2025;
  • DFS release for Assafou in late 2025/early 2026.

• Risks: Adverse NAV movement, negative forward EBITDA revisions, and multiple erosion are key downside risks. NAV declined 0.9% to C$9,615M due to the carried interest change.

Quick Data:

• NAV: C$9,615M (pre-change).
• Current Price: C$43.98.
• Price Target: C$48 (+9%).
• Top Material Issues: FCF generation, expansion ramps, permitting & drilling.