兰德-欧洲防务战略自治（英）-90页_2mb

Summary of "European Strategic Autonomy in Defence"

Core Content

The report European Strategic Autonomy in Defence explores the evolving concept of European strategic autonomy and its implications for the EU, NATO, and US-EU relations. It presents a scenario-based analysis to understand the potential futures and policy consequences of this ambition.

Main Views and Key Information

Definition and Scope

• European strategic autonomy refers to the ability of the EU to act independently and to decide whether and how to collaborate with like-minded partners in security and defence matters.
• The concept has expanded from a focus on military capabilities to include broader security considerations such as trade, energy, technology, and digitalisation.
• It is rooted in a traditional (Westphalian) understanding of security, where the nation-state holds the monopoly on legitimate force and is primarily responsible for its citizens' safety.

Background and Ambition

• The push for European strategic autonomy gained momentum during the Trump administration, driven by concerns over US commitment to NATO and the desire for greater European burden sharing.
• The UK's Brexit removed a key veto power, enabling more EU-led initiatives in defence.
• The EU's Global Strategy (EUGS) and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) have heightened the ambition for a stronger, more integrated European defence.

Challenges and Uncertainties

• The path to greater EU defence integration has been uncertain, with limited resources, political support, and clear outputs.
• There is divergence in views between European and US experts regarding the plausibility of different scenarios.
• Transatlantic relations are at risk if the EU becomes too independent from NATO, especially in the context of geopolitical competition with countries like China and Russia.

Scenarios of Future Development

Three possible futures were explored:

1. Scenario 1: A true European pillar of NATO

   • EU becomes a strong, cohesive military partner within NATO.
   • Increased NATO-EU complementarity and military strength.
   • US perceived as a reliable ally.
   • European defence spending ≥2% GDP.
   • Plausibility: Seen as likely by European experts, though not by US counterparts in the short term.

2. Scenario 2: European defence integration falters; transatlantic fragmentation

   • EU fails to integrate effectively, leading to fragmented decision-making.
   • Reduced NATO-EU complementarity and increased US influence.
   • Mixed perception of US reliability.
   • Plausibility: Some US experts find this scenario more likely due to potential shifts in US foreign policy.

3. Scenario 3: A strong Europe goes its own way

   • EU develops a militarily independent structure, not relying on NATO.
   • Potential loss of US influence in Europe.
   • Plausibility: Seen as unlikely in the short term by most experts.

Implications for NATO and US

• A stronger EU is generally seen as beneficial for both NATO and the US, though it could lead to divergent strategic interests.
• NATO's credibility depends on the strength and coordination of its member states, many of which are also EU members.
• US foreign policy ambitions could be impacted if Europe becomes fragmented or less aligned.

External Influences

• Non-EU NATO members such as Turkey and the UK play a significant role in shaping European strategic autonomy.
• Russia and China are external challengers whose policies and actions influence EU-US-NATO dynamics.
• The complexity of EU-China and EU-Russia relations means that strategic autonomy discussions often extend beyond traditional defence and security.

Policy Recommendations

• Foster constructive dialogue between EU and US partners to enhance mutual understanding and avoid misperceptions.
• Encourage a proactive US stance that supports EU defence integration, aligning with NATO interests.
• Strengthen NATO-EU cooperation through shared strategic concepts and practical initiatives.
• Restore a constructive relationship with the UK, leveraging its global capabilities and contributions to European security.

Key Initiatives and Frameworks

• European Defence Procurement Directive and Defence Transfers Directive
• European Defence Fund (EDF) and European Defence Agency (EDA)
• Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD) and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO)
• Minilateral groupings such as the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), Combined Joint Expeditionary Force (CJEF), and NORDEFCO

Conclusion

European strategic autonomy in defence is a complex and evolving concept with significant implications for transatlantic relations and the security architecture of the Euro-Atlantic region. While the EU seeks greater independence, the success of this ambition will depend on both internal coherence and external alignment with NATO and the US. The study highlights the need for clear definitions, constructive dialogue, and coordinated efforts to ensure that European strategic autonomy contributes positively to regional and global security.