战略与国际研究中心-20-Years-of-the-Development-Credit-Authority_28页_1mb

DCA Final Report of Evaluations (2008-2013) Summary

Core Content

The Development Credit Authority (DCA), established in 1999 by USAID, is a program designed to mobilize local private capital by creating real risk-sharing relationships with private financial institutions. Through loan guarantees, DCA has supported over 140,000 borrowers in 70+ countries and has unlocked up to $3.2 billion in private capital. The DCA provides four types of guarantees: Loan Portfolio Guarantee (LPG), Portable Guarantee, Loan Guarantee, and Bond Guarantee, with LPG being the most popular (accounting for 80% of the portfolio).

Main Objectives of DCA Evaluations

1. Communicate DCA's development contributions to stakeholders and external partners.
2. Contribute to the dialogue on engaging financial institutions in development efforts.
3. Learn from interventions by examining the impact on financial deepening, cost-effectiveness, and development outcomes.
4. Strengthen future DCA applications as a tool for achieving development results.

Evaluation Methodology

• Selection Criteria: Guarantees were chosen based on expiring or nearly expiring activities, high utilization, geographical distribution, and sector representation.
• Mixed Methods Approach: Used statistical analysis, key informant interviews, group interviews, and document reviews.
• Customized Frameworks: Each evaluation had a tailored framework to analyze additionality, lender behavioral change, and market demonstration effects.
• Field Assessments: Conducted one to two weeks of field work with semi-structured interviews and data collection from partners and borrowers.

Key Findings

Output

• Additionality was generally achieved, as guaranteed loans were not likely to occur without DCA support.
• Nine out of eleven cases saw partner lending initiate or increase to target sectors.
• Root Capital expanded its operations in East Africa and nearly tripled its portfolio to $2.9 million.
• Only three partners failed to fully achieve their designated goals.

Outcome

• Most partners continued lending to target sectors after the guarantee expired.
• Moldova showed that 50% of borrowers remained active after the guarantee ended.
• Honduras demonstrated increased confidence in lending to the agricultural sector post-expiration.
• Five partners still relied on donor or government guarantees for lending in target sectors.

Impact

• Market demonstration effects were observed in several cases, showing a correlation or direct causation between guarantee availability and improved credit access.
• In Indonesia, Philippines, and Moldova, causality between credit access and DCA guarantees was evident.
• Philippines saw the creation of the Philippine Water Revolving Fund (PWRF), a joint U.S./Japan initiative, and the DCA guarantee helped establish credibility with private financial institutions.
• Russia showed no significant improvement in SME access to finance, attributed to government regulations and the 2008 financial crisis.
• Rwanda's Bank of Kigali (BK) used the guarantee to increase its agricultural portfolio, especially in the coffee sector.
• Ethiopia's Bank of Abyssinia (BOA) increased lending to the agriculture sector, but the sector remains underserved.
• Kenya's Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) saw financial and economic additionality, with improved lending to SMEs and better business outcomes.
• Haiti's SOGEBANK and Capital Bank used DCA guarantees to support lending to SMEs and manage risk, though the impact on other lenders was limited.

Lessons Learned

1. Technical Assistance (TA) is critical to both borrower creditworthiness and lender capacity.
2. Incentivizing Competition among multiple banks using multiple guarantees can lead to sustainable market catalyzation.
3. Targeted Scope in niche sectors allows for more effective impact measurement.
4. Revolving Guarantees could enhance market impact, though they are currently not allowed under U.S. Government credit policy.

Key Information

• Total MCD: $100.3 million
• Total Borrowers: 14,621
• Default Rate: 4.3%
• Countries Evaluated: Ghana, Honduras, Indonesia, Russia, Philippines, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Haiti, and Africa/Latin America
• Partners Evaluated: 12 financial institution partners
• Impact Factors: Technical Assistance, macroeconomic changes, and global economic improvements

Conclusion

The DCA evaluation project from 2008 to 2013 highlighted the effectiveness of guarantee programs in improving access to credit and supporting financial deepening in underserved sectors. While additionality and behavioral change were common outcomes, market demonstration effects were more challenging to isolate. The findings underscore the importance of program design, technical assistance, and competitive incentives in maximizing the impact of DCA guarantees.