2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Iceland_Sixth_Post_65页_1mb

Summary of the Sixth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions for Iceland

Core Content

The Sixth Post-Program Monitoring (PPM) discussions of the IMF Executive Board with Iceland, held on June 24, 2015, focused on two major economic challenges: the implementation of an updated capital account liberalization strategy and the potential impact of significant wage increases on inflation, competitiveness, and fiscal sustainability.

The document includes a Staff Report, a Press Release, a Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland, and a Staff Statement, all of which highlight the progress made by Iceland in rebuilding its economic framework and the risks ahead.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Challenges and Outlook

• Capital Account Liberalization: Iceland is working on a staged approach to liberalize its capital account, with the first phase targeting the balance of payments (BOP) overhang from the failed banks. The strategy emphasizes a cooperative approach with incentives and aims to maintain financial stability.
• Wage Increases: Collective wage bargaining is expected to lead to a cumulative 20–25% increase in nominal wages over three years, which could push inflation above the CBI's 2.5% target. This is likely to slow growth and increase fiscal pressures.
• Growth and Inflation: Economic growth is projected to reach 4.1% in 2015, driven by tourism, investment, and consumption. Inflation is currently at 1.6%, but expectations have risen, and the CBI has raised its policy rate by 50 bps in response. Inflation is expected to peak at around 6.0% in 2016 before gradually returning to target levels.
• Fiscal Outlook: The general government is projected to have a surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 2015, supported by one-off revenues. However, small deficits are expected in 2016–20 due to public pension fund shortfalls, new hospital funding, and other factors. The government has introduced a medium-term fiscal framework aimed at achieving balanced budgets and reducing debt.
• External Sector: The current account balance is expected to remain positive but decline over the medium term. The trade balance is supported by favorable terms of trade and tourism, but rising import demand could offset gains. FX reserves are expected to grow, and the CBI is increasing its FX purchases to stabilize the currency.

Policy Discussions

• Monetary Policy: The CBI is expected to continue tightening monetary policy to bring inflation under control. The MPC has already raised the policy rate and may do so further in response to wage pressures.
• Fiscal Policy: Fiscal adjustments will be necessary to reduce demand pressures while maintaining a path toward debt reduction. The government has committed to reforms such as PIT reform and social programs to facilitate wage agreements.
• Capital Account Liberalization: The updated strategy aims to accelerate liberalization, with potential one-off revenues from the BOP overhang. However, the pace may be affected by macroeconomic volatility and competitiveness concerns.
• Financial Sector Reforms: Ongoing efforts include strengthening financial safety nets, improving macroprudential policies, and enhancing financial supervision. The Housing Financing Fund (HFF) remains a key issue, with a final decision pending on its run-off and a successor strategy.

Key Issues and Risks

• Wage Hikes: Expected to lead to higher inflation, budget pressures, and a decline in competitiveness. They may also slow capital account liberalization and reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy.
• Fiscal Risks: Legal challenges to financial sector taxation and contingent liabilities from the HFF could increase government debt and interest payments.
• External Risks: An economic slowdown in the euro area, financial market uncertainty in Greece, and U.S. monetary tightening could negatively impact exports and foreign investment.
• Upward Risks: Global oil price increases could weaken terms of trade and the trade balance.
• Downward Risks: Unanchored inflation expectations, broader strikes, and a disorderly liberalization process could undermine economic stability and growth.

Summary of Economic Indicators

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board commended Iceland for its progress in policy frameworks and financial sector reforms but emphasized the need for careful implementation of the updated capital account liberalization strategy and a strong policy response to wage pressures. The authorities are expected to proceed with the strategy, but risks remain, including unanchored inflation expectations, competitiveness erosion, and fiscal challenges. The document outlines a path toward economic stability and sustainable growth, supported by fiscal and monetary adjustments, while highlighting the importance of maintaining reserve buffers and financial sector resilience.