2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Iceland_Sixth_Review_Under_the_SBA_and_Proposal_for_Post_77页_1mb

Summary of Iceland: Sixth Review Under the SBA and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring

Core Content

This document outlines the sixth review under the IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Iceland, conducted by the IMF staff team in collaboration with the European Department, and includes the staff report, staff statement, press release, and statement by the Executive Director. The review was completed on August 16, 2011, following discussions with Icelandic officials on June 30, 2011. The SBA, approved in 2008, had an amount equivalent to SDR 1.4 billion (about $2.2 billion), and the final purchase of SDR 280 million became available after the sixth review. The program is on track, and all end-June performance criteria were met.

The report highlights key economic developments, economic outlook, and policy discussions, including fiscal, monetary, financial sector, and private sector debt restructuring. It also discusses the proposal for post-program monitoring and the status of debt sustainability.

Main Points

1. Economic Recovery and Performance

• A tentative economic recovery is underway in 2011, with moderate growth supported by increased inventories and consumption.
• Unemployment has decreased to 6.7% in June 2011 from 7.6% in the same period the previous year.
• Inflation is rising, driven by krona depreciation, higher commodity prices, and administered price hikes.
• Net exports are expected to be weaker due to strong import growth, while private consumption remains robust.
• Volcanic activity has had a limited impact on growth but remains a potential risk.

2. Outlook for 2011 and Beyond

• Moderate expansion is expected in 2011, but medium-term growth sources remain uncertain.
• Inflation is projected to remain above the central bank target until early 2013.
• Balance of payments outlook remains largely unchanged, with reserves expected to increase in 2011 due to current account surpluses and asset recovery.
• Public debt is expected to decline over the medium term, reaching around 80% of GDP by 2016.
• External debt is projected to fall from 251.5% of GDP in 2011 to 147.4% by 2016.

3. Fiscal Policy

• Significant fiscal consolidation has taken place, with a total of 10% of GDP in revenue and expenditure measures from 2009 to 2011.
• Primary balance improvement of 6% of GDP has been achieved, with a revised target of 2% of GDP in 2012, 3% in 2013, and 5% in the medium term.
• Fiscal risks from financial sector restructuring have been contained, with net fiscal costs at 20.3% of GDP by 2011.
• The fiscal target was eased by 0.5 percentage points of GDP in 2011 to support the economic recovery.

4. Monetary Policy and Capital Controls

• A tightening bias in monetary policy has been adopted to address inflation risks.
• Capital controls are being gradually lifted, with the initial steps implemented as planned.
• The central bank has maintained stability in short-term interest rates, and real yields remain low due to continued inflows from pension funds and foreign investors.

5. Financial Sector Reforms

• The banking system has been recapitalized, and the core banking system is now stable.
• Private sector debt restructuring is accelerating, though efforts must continue.
• Legacy vulnerabilities, such as nonperforming loans and concentration risks, are being addressed.
• Prudential regulations and supervision are being strengthened.

6. Private Sector Debt Restructuring

• The pace of restructuring has finally picked up, with household and corporate debt being restructured.
• Recapitalization of the core banking system has been completed.
• Ongoing efforts are needed to reduce remaining vulnerabilities and ensure long-term financial stability.

7. Program Modalities and Post-Program Monitoring

• The SBA expires on August 31, 2011, and the revised medium-term fiscal plan is expected to be published in the autumn.
• Financing assurances are in place, with Nordic partners and Poland extending their lending facilities until end-2011.
• The program is on track, and the economic recovery is tentative, requiring continued implementation of reforms and adherence to the revised plan.

Key Information

• The staff report was prepared by the IMF staff team and does not reflect the views of the Executive Board.
• The staff statement of August 22, 2011, updated recent developments.
• The Executive Board discussed the staff report on August 26, 2011, and issued a press release summarizing its views.
• A statement by the Executive Director for Iceland was also included.
• The Letter of Intent and Technical Memorandum of Understanding are included in the staff report.
• The policy discussions focused on the success of the program, the need for continued reform, and the importance of fiscal discipline.
• The financial sector is being restructured, and private sector debt is being addressed.
• Fiscal risks have been managed, and debt sustainability is expected to be achieved by 2016.
• The economic recovery is fragile, and uncertainty about growth sources persists.