2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Iceland_2013_Article_IV_Consultations_and_Third_Post_63页_2mb

Summary of the 2013 Article IV Consultation and Third Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Iceland

Core Content

The 2013 Article IV consultation and third post-program monitoring discussions with Iceland focused on the country's economic recovery, fiscal sustainability, capital controls, and financial sector stability. The staff report, prepared by the IMF, outlined the progress made since the 2008-09 crisis and identified key challenges that needed to be addressed to ensure continued growth and stability.

Main Policy Issues and Views

1. Economic Recovery and Legacy Vulnerabilities

• Iceland's economy is on a recovery path, but legacy vulnerabilities from the crisis continue to hinder growth.
• Real output remains 10 percent below its pre-crisis peak, and GDP growth slowed to 1.6 percent in 2012 due to private sector deleveraging and weak external demand.
• Private consumption and investment are still below trend, and further deleveraging is expected.
• The external position has improved, with gross international reserves exceeding short-term debt.

2. Capital Controls

• Capital controls were introduced to stabilize the economy and prevent a depreciation-inflation spiral.
• An orderly lifting of controls is essential to avoid growth-hindering distortions and to safeguard external stability.
• The release of offshore krona and the resolution of old bank estates are key components of the capital account liberalization strategy.
• Staff emphasized the need for a clear and credible roadmap to lift controls, including measures to manage potential outflows and ensure financial stability.

3. Monetary Policy

• The central bank's monetary stance is appropriate, with inflation expected to converge to the 2.5 percent target by 2015.
• The recent softening of economic activity suggests that little change in the policy rate is needed to achieve this goal.
• Monetary transmission remains weak due to market dominance and capital controls, which limit the effectiveness of interest rate policy.

4. Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal consolidation is crucial for maintaining market access and ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability.
• The government has signaled its intention to meet the 2014 balanced budget target, despite some fiscal slippage in 2012 and 2013.
• High-quality fiscal measures are needed to ensure the durability of consolidation efforts.
• The new government plans tax cuts and household debt relief, which may conflict with fiscal discipline and need to be aligned with macroeconomic stability.

5. Debt Restructuring

• Household debt has declined by 14 percent, and corporate debt by 45 percent, but further adjustment is expected.
• Unique features of Icelandic household debt, such as CPI-indexed mortgages, complicate the deleveraging process.
• The authorities are considering additional debt relief, but fiscal space is limited, so any new measures should be targeted at distressed households.

6. Financial Sector Policy

• Financial stability requires stronger supervision, a robust resolution framework, and a solid deposit insurance system.
• Banks need to maintain high capital and liquidity buffers.
• A comprehensive reform of the Housing Financing Fund (HFF) is critical to address legacy risks.

Key Risks Identified

Summary of Policy Recommendations

• Capital Controls: A clear, time-bound strategy is needed to liberalize the capital account, including resolving old bank estates, managing offshore krona, and preparing for orderly outflows.
• Monetary Policy: Continue the current monetary stance and use foreign exchange purchases to build up non-borrowed reserves, while addressing structural issues in the interbank market.
• Fiscal Policy: Ensure that fiscal consolidation remains on track and that new policies (such as tax cuts and debt relief) are aligned with long-term fiscal sustainability.
• Debt Restructuring: Complete the restructuring process and focus on distressed households to ensure continued progress in reducing private sector debt.
• Financial Sector: Strengthen supervision, improve the resolution framework, and implement reforms to the Housing Financing Fund to enhance financial stability.

Conclusion

The IMF staff recognized the progress made by Iceland in stabilizing its economy and improving its fiscal and external positions, but emphasized the need for continued policy efforts to address legacy vulnerabilities. The key challenges include the orderly lifting of capital controls, maintaining fiscal discipline, and ensuring sustainable growth through private sector adjustment and investment in energy-intensive sectors. The staff also highlighted the importance of managing risks associated with the euro area and the need for a credible roadmap to support long-term economic stability.