2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Portugal_Sixth_Post_43页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 18/52: Portugal

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 18/52 outlines the Sixth Post-Program Monitoring (PPM) discussions with Portugal, which took place in November 2017 and concluded on February 21, 2018. The report evaluates the economic developments, fiscal and financial stability, and policy outlook for Portugal, highlighting both progress and remaining challenges.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance and Outlook

• Economic Growth: Portugal's economy has strengthened, with real GDP growth of 2.5% year-on-year in 2017 and a projected 2.2% growth in 2018. Growth has been driven by job creation, increased private investment, and a positive external environment.
• Employment: Employment growth has been broad-based, including both permanent and temporary jobs. The unemployment rate declined to 9.0% in 2017 and is expected to further decrease in 2018.
• Consumer Prices: Inflation has moderated from a peak of 2.4% in April 2017 to 1.6% in December 2017, with core inflation at 1.2%. However, price competitiveness has declined, driven by an increase in unit labor costs (ULCs).
• Fiscal Balance: The headline fiscal deficit for 2017 is expected to have been met with a margin, at 1.4% of GDP. The primary fiscal balance improved to 2.7% of GDP in 2017, and is projected to remain around 2.6% in 2018.
• Public Debt: Public debt remains at 126% of GDP, the third highest in the euro area. It is projected to decline to 108% of GDP by 2023, but still leaves Portugal vulnerable to interest rate hikes and external shocks.

Financial Stability

• Banking Sector: Banks have made progress in reducing NPLs, with a decline of 2.6 percentage points to 14.6% of total loans in September 2017. The CET1 capital ratio increased to 13.5%.
• Capital Augmentations: Major banks completed capital augmentations and reduced risk-weighted assets, which improved capital adequacy ratios.
• Financial Sector Reforms: Banks have adopted time-bound NPL reduction plans and are implementing ECB guidance. The Capitalizar program supports corporate restructuring and funding.

Market Access and Repayment Capacity

• Market Access: Portugal has improved access to financial markets, with sovereign debt eligible for inclusion in international bond indexes. The sovereign outlook has been upgraded to investment grade by S&P and Fitch.
• Repayment Capacity: Portugal's capacity to repay the IMF is adequate under the baseline and robust to risk scenarios. The country has made early repayments to the Fund, leaving debt outstanding at SDR 3.9 billion as of January 2018.
• Debt Maturity and Cost: The average maturity of non-IMF/EU debt was 6.4 years at end-2017, and the implicit interest rate on new debt has declined to 2.6%.

Risks and Policy Recommendations

• Downside Risks:
  • External Risks: Vulnerability to global market repricing, weaker Eurozone growth, and prolonged uncertainty in Spain.
  • Internal Risks: High debt stocks, structural rigidities, and potential labor cost increases could affect growth and stability.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Structural Reforms: Continued focus on labor market flexibility, judicial efficiency, and corporate debt restructuring.
  • Fiscal Consolidation: Primary fiscal balance reforms are essential for sustaining public debt reduction.
  • Financial Sector: Banks need to improve profitability, reduce NPLs, and enhance corporate governance.
  • Investment and Productivity: Increased investment and productivity improvements are needed to raise growth potential and resilience.
  • Macroprudential Measures: Authorities should be prepared to implement additional macroprudential measures if needed to prevent imbalances and strengthen resilience.

Authorities' Views

• The Portuguese economy has improved financing conditions and is more resilient to global and regional financial shocks.
• The investment grade rating and diversified investor base have helped expand market access.
• The large cash buffer and maturity structure of public debt are seen as key tools to withstand market fluctuations.
• The advanced Fund repurchases have reduced average debt costs while maintaining maturity.
• The authorities are committed to continued fiscal and structural reforms, and labor market flexibility is seen as essential for absorbing shocks and adapting to opportunities.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board concluded that Portugal's economic performance has improved, and repayment capacity is adequate. However, structural challenges and high debt levels remain. The authorities are expected to continue with fiscal consolidation, financial sector reforms, and labor market flexibility to sustain growth and stability in the medium term.