2015-12-31-莱坊-Australian_Currency_Research_Insight_Q2_2016_2页_275kb

Summary of Research Briefing

Key Question

The briefing examines whether the strengthening of the Australian Dollar (AUD) in recent times signals a slowdown in overseas investment into the Australian property market, particularly in light of global "currency wars" and economic uncertainties.

Core Findings

The AUD has strengthened due to a commodity price recovery (notably iron ore and oil) and a softening US Dollar, which could make overseas investments appear more expensive. However, the Australian economy has shown resilience, with GDP growth exceeding market consensus at 3% (ABS data, February 2015), and improved business conditions across industries, especially in services and non-mining sectors.

Despite AUD appreciation, there remain significant exchange rate discounts, providing attractive opportunities for overseas investors. Notably, foreign investment continues to dominate key markets, with overseas investors accounting for a substantial portion of property sales, including 52% in CBD offices in 2015.

Chinese investors are the largest overseas group, driving much of the investment in cities like Sydney and Melbourne, totaling $3.8 billion in 2015. This is supported by aggressive market entry from Chinese developers, the July 2015 Australia-China Free Trade Agreement (raising investment thresholds), and government policies such as Qualified Domestic Individual Investor (QDII) schemes.

Implications

While a stronger AUD may pose challenges for overseas investment, ongoing economic vitality and policy factors are expected to sustain activity. The report suggests that even with currency fluctuations, China's deep involvement and bilateral ties could offset potential slowdowns.

Data Highlights

• AUD appreciated 11% against the Chinese Renminbi over six months (end-March 2016).
• Chinese real estate investment in Australia has grown significantly since 2010, surpassing only New York in 2015.