20140429-DBS_Group-Downstream_outperformance_11页_242kb

报告摘要

Metric	2012A	2013A	2014F	2015F
Turnover (RMB m)	55,615	62,263	71,306	81,134
EBITDA (RMB m)	2,485	2,831	3,538	4,335
Pre-tax Profit (RMB m)	2,244	2,638	3,271	3,983
Net Profit (RMB m)	1,695	2,037	2,494	3,002
EPS (HK$)	0.88	1.05	1.29	1.55
Net Profit Growth (%)	20.2	22.4	20.4	-
P/Book Value (X)	6.5	4.7	3.6	2.8
PE (X)	21.4	17.8	14.5	12.1
EV/EBITDA (X)	12.8	10.8	8.5	6.7

Sales: Increased by 13% y-o-y to RMB16bn
Net Profit: Grew by 18% y-o-y to RMB466m (slightly below expectations)
Manufacturing Sales: Declined by 2% to RMB4.2bn due to a high base effect
ICS Revenue: Rose by 14% to RMB15.017bn, driven by air-conditioner sales and non-Haier products
Net Margin: 2.9% (up from 2.8% in 1Q13)
Share Price: Corrected by ~20% from January 2014 peak and approached Alibaba's investment cost of HK$18.4

Improved Growth Momentum: Expected better performance in upcoming quarters due to easier base and rising logistics revenue
Logistics Growth: Expected to accelerate, supported by Alibaba Group and Shanghai Boyol joint venture
Price Target Justification: Based on 19x 12-month rolling PE on an ex-cash basis
Downside Protection: Share price is considered to have limited downside at current level
Recommendation: Maintain BUY rating with a price target of HK$25.67

Company	Price (HK$)	Market Cap (HK$m)	PE (X)	P/Sales (X)	Yield (%)	P/Bk (X)	ROE (%)
Haier Electronics*^	18.74	6,363	x	x	%	x	%
Chigo Holding*	0.175	190	5.4	0.1	3.4	7.3	7.6
Skyworth Digital*#	3.79	1,383	5.1	0.2	6.1	4.9	7.6
TCL Multimedia*^	2.77	476	15.9	0.1	2.8	3.5	9.0
Welling Holding	2.45	901	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Midea Group	46.44	12,610	8.6	0.6	4.2	5.1	24.8
GREE Electrical	29.25	14,167	5.7	0.5	5.1	7.6	26.9
Hisense Elec.	10.46	2,204	6.9	0.4	3.6	4.2	17.2
Qingdao Haier	15.01	6,576	8.8	0.4	3.3	5.1	28.3
Wuxi Little Swan	8.97	914	7.3	0.5	3.6	4.6	13.7
Hisense Kelon	7.98	1,740	6.8	0.1	2.8	4.2	39.7

Segment	2011A	2012A	2013A	2014F
Manufacturing of washing machines	13,277	14,222	15,447	16,701
Manufacturing of water heaters	4,489	4,358	4,796	5,255
Integrated Channel Services (ICS)	50,769	57,568	67,292	77,987
Total Revenue	55,615	62,263	71,306	81,134

Segment	2011A	2012A	2013A	2014F
Manufacturing of washing machines	8.3	8.7	9.0	9.3
Manufacturing of water heaters	11.1	11.0	11.7	12.3
Integrated Channel Services (ICS)	1.4	1.8	2.1	2.3
Total Segmental Profit Margin	4.2	4.4	4.7	4.9

Metric	2011A	2012A	2013A	2014F
Revenue	55,615	62,263	71,306	81,134
Pre-tax Profit	2,244	2,638	3,271	3,983
Net Profit	1,695	2,037	2,494	3,002
Net Profit Growth (%)	20.4	20.2	22.4	20.4

Metric	2011A	2012A	2013A	2014F
Total Assets	18,213	21,881	25,875	30,564
Shareholder's Equity	5,540	7,721	10,014	12,770
Net Cash/(Debt)	4,629	5,909	6,592	7,663
Net Debt/Equity (X)	CASH	CASH	CASH	CASH
Current Ratio (X)	1.5	1.5	1.6	1.6
Quick Ratio (X)	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.3

Metric	2011A	2012A	2013A	2014F	2015F
Net Operating CF	1,740	2,210	2,640	2,887
Free CFPS (RMB)	0.53	0.23	0.34	0.37

S.No.	Date	Closing Price	Target Price	Rating
1	22-Jul-13	HK$13.16	HK$15.01	Buy
2	25-Jul-13	HK$13.40	HK$15.01	Buy
3	29-Aug-13	HK$14.02	HK$14.59	Hold
4	27-Sep-13	HK$14.90	HK$14.59	Hold
5	31-Oct-13	HK$15.64	HK$16.86	Buy
6	19-Nov-13	HK$18.90	HK$23.14	Buy
7	10-Dec-13	HK$21.05	HK$25.82	Buy
8	22-Jan-14	HK$24.25	HK$26.61	Buy
9	6-Mar-14	HK$22.90	HK$26.61	Buy
10	26-Mar-14	HK$20.75	HK$26.00	Buy

The views expressed reflect the personal views of the analyst.
No compensation is directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations.
No conflicts of interest are present for the analyst, spouse, relatives, or dependents.

This report is for clients of DBS Vickers Group only.
No part of this document may be copied or redistributed without prior written consent.
The research is based on information from reliable sources but not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
DBS Vickers accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this report.
The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
DBS Vickers may have interests in the securities mentioned.
The report is not to be construed as an investment recommendation.

展开完整摘要