20160216-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_15页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

Wind Power Generation Performance: In January 2016, Huaneng Renewables reported wind power generation of 1,551GWh, representing a 42.1% YoY increase, outperforming Longyuan's +3.2%.
Factors Behind the Growth: The increase was attributed to a +28.5% YoY rise in installed wind capacity and a +14.7% YoY increase in wind utilization hours.
Utilization Hours: HNR's wind utilization hours in January 2016 were 171 hours, up 14.3% YoY from 149 hours in January 2015.
Regional Performance: Wind generation in East Mongolia showed improvement, while Xinjiang saw a 70.4% YoY drop in utilization hours.
Defensive Position: HNR is considered more defensive against curtailment issues due to its project portfolio being 32.4% in Zone I-III, compared to 52.6% for LY and 68.0% for Datang Renewables.
Valuation: The stock is currently trading at 6.6x 1-yr forward rolling P/E, which is more than 2SD below historical average.
Rating: The research maintains a BUY rating with a target price (TP) of HK$2.5, equivalent to 10.3x FY16E P/E.

CNY Visitation Increase: Macau welcomed 0.79mn mainland visitors and 1.08mn total visitors during the CNY holiday period, showing 4.3% and 4.7% YoY increases, respectively.
Seasonality Impact: The strong CNY effect suggests a positive outlook for the mass market, with Cotai operators (Melco Crown, Galaxy, Sands China) expected to benefit the most.
Visitor Distribution: Lotus Bridge accounted for 12% of total visitor arrivals during the holiday, compared to 6% and 7% in 2014 and 2015.
Valuation and Outlook: The sector trades at 19x FY16E P/E and 12x EV/EBITDA, 10% below the 5-year average. The sector is expected to outperform in the near term due to GGR recovery.
Recommendations: Investors are advised to accumulate Melco Crown (MPEL US) and Galaxy (27 HK) due to their QoQ EBITDA recovery and Cotai exposure.

Stock Indices: The Hang Seng Index rose +3.27%, Hang Seng Finance Index +4.02%, and Hang Seng Utilities Index +1.64%.
Commodities and Currencies:
- Brent Oil increased by +1.77%.
- JPY strengthened despite recent rate cuts, reflecting safe haven demand amid global volatility.
- USD/RMB fell -1.17% to 6.49, and USD/HKD declined -0.05% to 7.78.

GDP Performance: Japan's 4Q15 GDP fell -1.4% QoQ SAAR, below consensus expectations.
Components of Growth: Growth was driven by net exports, government consumption, and private non-residential investment, while private consumption remained weak.
Macroeconomic Risks: Debt to GDP ratio is still rising, and structural issues persist. A consumption tax hike in April 2017 is a downside catalyst.
Monetary Policy: The BoJ's debt monetization and limited policy tools pose challenges for economic growth.

Risk-Averse Sentiment: Investors' risk appetite has eased due to foreign market slumps, particularly Deutsche Bank's losses.
Market Correlations: Correlation between A-shares and exchange rates and commodities has weakened, while the Hang Seng China AH Premium Index and HSCEI show some correlation.
Valuation: The SSE Composite Index has seen a release of pessimism, with attractive valuations.
Recommendations:
- First bounce on strong themes: Network security, big data, venture capital, sensors, AI, intelligent transportation, automotive after-market, cloud computing, lithium batteries, mobile communication resale, smart accessories, smart medical.
- First bounce on weak themes: North Bay FTA, gold & jewelry, online travel, horse racing, aircraft carriers, restructuring of large central SOEs, UHV, water conservancy, cross-border e-commerce, margin concept, construction of beautiful China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, state asset reform.

Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment (forecast 3.2, prior 10.2), ZEW Current Conditions (forecast 56, prior 59.7).
U.S.: NY Fed Manufacturing (forecast -9.5, prior -19.37), NAHB Housing Market Index (forecast 61, prior 60), PPI Final Demand MM (forecast -0.20%, prior -0.20%), Industrial Output MM (forecast 0.30%, prior -0.40%).
Japan: Machinery Orders MM (forecast 4.70%, prior -14.40%).
China: PPI YY (forecast -5.40%, prior -5.90%), CPI YY (forecast 1.90%, prior 1.60%).

Auto & Auto Parts: Brilliance China, China ZhengTong Auto, Geely Automobile, BAIC Motor, Great Wall Motor, Fuyao Glass.
Property: China Resources Land, Yuzhou Property, KWG Property, Country Garden, Agile Property, Greentown China, China Merchants Land.
Technology, Media & Telecom: China Telecom, China Unicom, China Mobile, Wisdom, C CHUANGLIAN ED, Kingsoft, Boyaa Interactive, Linekong Interactive, Cheetah Mobile, 58.com.
Textile & Garment: China Lilang, 361 Degrees, Xstep International, ANTA Sports Products, Trinity, I.T, Hengan Int'l.
Food & Beverage: Biostime, Jiashili Group, Want Want China, Uni-President China, China Mengniu Dairy, Tingyi.
Retail: Sinomax, Chow Tai Fook, Cosmo Lady, Luk Fook Holdings, Haier Electronics, Redstar Macalline, Springland International, Intime Retail Group, Gome Electrical, JD.
Alternative Energy: Datang Renewable Power, Xinjiang Goldwind, GCL-Poly Energy, China Longyuan Power, Huaneng Renewables, Xinyi Solar.

The Huaneng Renewables report highlights strong wind power generation and positive valuation.
The Macau gaming sector is showing seasonal strength, with Cotai operators expected to benefit.
The Japanese economy is underperforming and faces medium-term risks.
The A-share market is showing improved liquidity and some recovery, with specific sector recommendations.
Investors are advised to monitor economic data and global market trends, with a cautious approach to Japanese assets.