20171115-招商证券_香港_-石药集团-01093.HK-Accelerating_growth_6页_1mb

报告摘要

CSPC PHARMA (1093 HK) Summary

Core Content

CSPC PHARMA (1093 HK) reported strong growth in the first nine months of 2017, driven by contributions from the VC segment and reduced currency headwinds. Sales increased by 21% and net profit by 30% in HKD, slightly exceeding expectations. The company upgraded its target price (TP) to HK$17.8 from HK$14.6, reflecting a 20% premium to the SOTP valuation and EPS upgrades. The stock trades at 27x 2018 PER, corresponding to a 1x PEG on a 28% EPS CAGR from 2017 to 2018.

Main Segments Performance

NBP (Butylphthalide): +33% growth in 9M17
Duomeisu: +40% growth in 9M17
Jinyouli: +168% growth in 9M17
Common generic: +13% growth in 9M17
Caffeine and VC segments: Both grew by 36% and 31%, respectively
Antibiotics API: Declined by 10%

Financial Performance (9M17)

Adj net margin: Improved to 18%, up 1.2pp
GPM expansion: Offset rising R&D and selling expenses ratios

Earnings Guidance for FY18

Earnings growth: Guided at 20-30%, broadly in line with consensus
VC segment: Could contribute an incremental HK$300-400mn in EBIT windfall in 2018, potentially pushing earnings growth above guidance

Potential R&D Catalysts

Albumin-bound paclitaxel: Marketing approval by year-end 2017, guided RMB200mn sales in year one
Metformin and Clopidogrel: Expected approvals in 1H18
ADC US IND filing: Expected in 4Q17 or 1H18
8 BE results filing: By year-end 2017
3 US ANDA approvals: Expected in 2018

Financials Overview

Metric	2015	2016	2017E	2018E	2019E
Revenue	11,394	12,369	14,868	17,820	19,884
Growth (%)	4%	9%	20%	20%	12%
Net profit	1,674	2,101	2,715	3,534	4,303
Growth (%)	27%	26%	29%	30%	22%
EPS (HKD)	0.28	0.35	0.45	0.57	0.69
P/E (x)	32.0	43.7	34.0	26.8	22.0
P/B (x)	6.1	5.6	6.7	5.7	4.9
Dividend yield (%)	1.2	1.3	1.0	1.3	1.6

Valuation

SOTP valuation: HK$91,996 million
Valuation per share: HK$14.86
Core portfolio drugs (NPV): HK$57,418 million
Generic portfolio: 18x 2018 NOPAT
API portfolio: 13x 2018 NOPAT

Financial Ratios

Metric	2015	2016	2017E	2018E	2019E
Consolidated revenue growth	4%	9%	20%	20%	12%
Gross profit growth	25%	21%	39%	29%	11%
Adjusted net profit growth	27%	26%	29%	30%	22%
Gross margin (%)	45.8%	51.0%	58.8%	63.2%	63.0%
Adj. net profit margin (%)	14.7%	17.0%	18.3%	19.8%	21.6%
ROE (year end)	19.1%	20.8%	19.1%	21.4%	22.3%
ROA	12.3%	14.2%	14.3%	16.5%	17.4%

Investment Rating

Industry Rating: OVERWEIGHT
Company Rating: BUY

Analyst and Regulatory Disclosures

Analysts certify that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal opinions.
The report is for information purposes only and not an investment recommendation.
CMS HK is licensed to conduct regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance.
The document is subject to legal restrictions and may not be distributed globally.
CMS HK is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States.

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