20250825-招银国际-石药集团-01093.HK-Two_more_large-scale_BD_deals_anticipated_in_2H25_5页_1mb

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) expects a revenue recovery in 2H25, with core revenue down 25% YoY in 1H25 due to soft NBP sales and VBP, but projecting at least a 5% HoH increase in 2Q25 following a 6% QoQ rise. The company anticipates two more large-scale BD deals in 2H25, each valued at over US$5bn, driven by its diverse technology platforms across ADCs, small molecules, and nanoparticles. Key assets include the EGFR ADC (SYS6010) in late-stage development, which has shown PFS and ORR in China and is under discussion for expanded indications. Management revised its target price to HK$12.11, reflecting BD contribution, with positive longer-term earnings growth factors through sustainable BD streams. Maintain BUY rating; key risks include VBP execution for existing products.