UBS_Economics-US_Economic_Perspectives_March_CPI_Preview_Update_Still_mo...-114586512_11页_1mb

March CPI Projections: UBS forecasts a modest 0.05% seasonally-adjusted increase for the headline CPI, which is lower than the Bloomberg consensus of 0.11%. The core CPI is projected to grow by 0.17%.

• These projections remain on the low end compared to market expectations.
• Pre-pandemic levels for core CPI are expected for March, with consistent performance observed.

Tariff Impact:

• Tariffs announced in late March are anticipated to cause noticeable inflation rises starting in May, peaking around 0.6% for core CPI increases in August–October.
• If tariffs escalate, fully implemented, inflate currency values decline, or stock markets fall, inflation risks increase.

Additional Factors: U.S. inflation could be lower if tariffs are lessened or delayed, or if the dollar strengthens or financial services prices adjust.

Overall Outlook: UBS projects a slight moderation in 12-month CPI inflation starting April but anticipates a rebound subsequently due to tariff effects and other external factors.