UBS_Economics-US_Economic_Perspectives_Powell_cant_be_pre-emptive_Ping...-115257933_7页_1mb

报告摘要

FOMC Trade-off: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) faces a worsening balance between economic growth and inflation risks, with Powell emphasizing a reactive approach to avoid pre-emptive policy changes.
Powell's Stance: Chair Powell stated the FOMC cannot be pre-emptive due to inflation upside risks and will respond quickly if labor market conditions weaken, noting policy is modestly restrictive and patient.
Data and Inflation: Economic data through Q1 is viewed positively, with inflation slightly above target ("somewhat above"), reducing flexibility for preemptive action.
Tariffs Uncertainty: Effects of tariffs are highly uncertain, with Powell dodging direct policy commitments and highlighting the need for ongoing risk assessment.
Rate Policy Outlook: The FOMC is positioned to wait for greater clarity; initial rate cuts may delay until September if significant economic deterioration occurs, reflecting a focus on data-driven decisions.

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