三星-韩国-投资组合-投资组合重点从季节性转向基本面-20171227-42页_2mb

Samsung Market Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the Samsung Model Portfolio strategy for January 2018, highlighting the shift from seasonal trends to fundamental analysis. It discusses the performance of the portfolio compared to the Kospi index, key sector exposure changes, and the outlook for the market.

Main Points

• Market Trends and Seasonality:

  • Since the 2008 financial crisis, distinct stock market trends in January have been absent.
  • Kospi small caps and Kosdaq-listed firms tend to outperform the main bourse due to repurchasing after year-end selloffs aimed at tax avoidance.
  • The strategy anticipates this seasonality to continue in 2018, but expects the focus to return to fundamentals once it subsides.

• Portfolio Performance (Nov 27 - Dec 26):

  • Samsung Model Portfolio fell by 2.50%, outperforming the Kospi by 71 basis points (bps).
  • The relative performance was positive across different timeframes, with a 6.98% gain over 12 months.

• January Outlook:

  • The current macroeconomic conditions, corporate earnings improvements, and monetary easing are favorable for equities.
  • Forward EPS estimates for the MSCI Korea have been revised up by about 6% over the past three months.
  • The IT and telecom services sectors have shown higher EPS forecast hikes compared to other sectors.
  • The Kospi target band for January is set at 2,420-2,580.

• Sector Exposure Adjustments:

  • Exposure is raised to materials, industrial goods, and consumer discretionary sectors.
  • Exposure is reduced to energy, IT, and healthcare sectors.
  • The portfolio beta for January is set at 0.96, up from 0.94 in December.

• Key Portfolio Changes:

  • Added Companies: Hanwha Chemical, LG Corporation, Poongsan, Doosan Bobcat, Hansae, Huons, Webzen.
  • Removed Companies: SK Corp, SK Materials, LG Chem, Korea Zinc, Mando, Samjin Pharm, TES.
  • Increased Exposure: Hyundai Motor and Posco Chemtech.
  • Decreased Exposure: SK Innovation and Hanmi Pharmaceutical.

Key Information

• Performance Metrics:

  • The Samsung Model Portfolio's performance was compared to the Kospi index over various periods, showing consistent outperformance.

• Sector Weighting Changes:

  • Consumer Discretionary: Increased from 13% to 14%.
  • Consumer Staples: Decreased from 7% to 6%.
  • Energy: Decreased from 4% to 3%.
  • IT: Decreased from 35% to 33%.
  • Healthcare: Decreased from 5% to 4%.
  • Industrial Goods: Increased from 12% to 14%.
  • Materials: Increased from 9% to 10%.
  • Consumer Discretionary: Increased from 13% to 14%.
  • Financials: Remained unchanged at 12%.
  • Telecom Services: Remained unchanged at 2%.
  • Utilities: Remained unchanged at 2%.

• Portfolio Beta:

  • The portfolio beta for January is set at 0.96, indicating a moderate risk level relative to the market.

• EPS Growth:

  • Forward EPS estimates for MSCI Korea have been revised up by 6% over the past three months, with IT and telecom services leading the EPS forecast hikes.

• Investment Strategy:

  • The strategy recommends increasing exposure to cyclical sectors, focusing on earnings momentum and valuation merits.
  • The shift from IT and financials to traditional segments like materials and consumer discretionary is emphasized.
  • Attention should refocus on fundamentals once the January seasonality subsides.

Conclusion

The Samsung Model Portfolio is expected to benefit from the current macroeconomic conditions and corporate earnings improvements. The strategy emphasizes a shift from seasonal trends to fundamental analysis, with increased exposure to materials, industrial goods, and consumer discretionary sectors, and reduced exposure to IT and financials. The portfolio beta is set at 0.96, and the target band for the Kospi is 2,420-2,580. The strategy also highlights the importance of monitoring key events like Kim Jong-un's New Year's Speech and US infrastructure investment.