20160224-三星证券-Revising_down_2016_Kospi_target_range_18页_1mb

报告摘要

Samsung Market Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the market strategy for Samsung Securities as of February 24, 2016, focusing on the performance and outlook of the Korean and global stock markets. It includes updates to the 2016 Kospi target range, sector fundamentals, valuations, and fund flows.

Main Points

Revised Kospi Target Range: The target range for the 2016 Kospi index was revised down from 1,880-2,240 to 1,820-2,080 due to unfavorable macroeconomic variables.
Macroeconomic Factors:
- Oil price weakness has increased volatility in the US high-yield market.
- Low interest rates and negative interest rate policies (NIRP) have worsened credit concerns for global banks.
- The yuan has depreciated significantly against the dollar, affecting EM currencies, while the yen and euro have appreciated.
- Global uncertainties have reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate hike.
Sector Performance:
- Korean energy, chemicals, auto, and retail sectors have led the market rebound.
- The pharmaceutical sector has seen intensified downward forecast revisions.
Global Market Outlook:
- Developed markets (DMs) have seen positive returns, with EMs also improving after a global rebound.
- Eurozone markets are weaker due to banking sector credit concerns.
- Energy, materials, and industrials sectors are performing better in both DMs and EMs.
Valuation Metrics:
- Forward P/E and P/B ratios are key indicators for sector valuations.
- The MSCI Korea index's forward P/E has been revised down by 3% from three months prior.
Fund Flows:
- Global equity funds have mostly experienced capital outflows, but ex-Japan Asian funds have turned to net inflows.
- Domestic equity funds have seen a significant increase in net inflows.
- The MSCI Korea index has seen a net outflow of USD 3,109 million year-to-date.
Stock Screening:
- Top and bottom stocks are identified based on EPS forecast changes.
- Large caps, mid-sized caps, and small caps are analyzed separately.

Key Information

Revised 2016 Kospi Target Range

P/E (x)	Kospi (pts)
-3SD	1,815
-2SD	1,859
-1SD	1,902
Average	1,946
+1SD	1,990
+2SD	2,033
+3SD	2,077

Implied Forward EPS Revisions

Item	Nov 16, 2015	Feb 17, 2016
Cost of equity	8.56	8.75
Risk free rate (%)	1.75	1.43
Implied equity risk premium (%)	6.81	7.32
Forward P/B (x)	0.93	0.89
Implied forward ROE (%)	8.84	8.48
Consensus forward ROE (%)	7.99	7.75
Implied forward EPS revision	(9.62)	(8.53)

Top 10 Stock Picks

Sector	Stock	Code	Current Price (KRW)	Target Price (KRW)	P/E	P/B	EV/EBITDA	EPS Growth (%)	ROE (%)	Dividend Yield (%)
Energy	SK Innovation	A096770	143,000	n/a	13.2	8.6	0.7	5.2	6.2	8.6
Materials	Posco	A005490	196,500	230,000	17.1	42.1	0.4	7.0	142.2	1.0
Materials	LG Chem	A051910	303,500	n/a	20.1	14.0	1.5	6.1	11.4	10.9
Industrials	Hyundai Development	A012630	41,400	60,000	3.1	11.1	1.2	8.3	27.6	11.4
Consumer Discretionary	Hankook Tire	A161390	49,700	60,000	6.2	8.7	1.1	5.3	10.9	13.1
Consumer Discretionary	CJ CGV	A079160	112,500	170,000	2.4	37.1	4.9	14.1	20.9	14.1
Consumer Discretionary	GS Home Shopping	A028150	187,700	246,000	1.2	12.6	1.2	4.2	9.4	10.3
Consumer Staples	Lotte Chilsung	A005300	1,999,000	3,000,000	2.5	26.2	1.1	10.6	5.1	4.3
IT	LG Electronics	A066570	62,500	75,000	10.2	23.6	0.9	6.3	12.1	3.9
IT	NCsoft	A036570	240,000	310,000	5.3	18.7	2.6	10.4	36.0	15.0

Bottom 10 Stock Picks

Sector	Stock	Code	Current Price (KRW)	Target Price (KRW)	P/E	P/B	EV/EBITDA	EPS Growth (%)	ROE (%)	Dividend Yield (%)
Energy	Hankook Tire	A161390	49,700	60,000	6.2	8.7	1.1	5.3	10.9	13.1
Materials	CJ CGV	A079160	112,500	170,000	2.4	37.1	4.9	14.1	20.9	14.1
Consumer Discretionary	GS Home Shopping	A028150	187,700	246,000	1.2	12.6	1.2	4.2	9.4	10.3
Consumer Staples	Lotte Chilsung	A005300	1,999,000	3,000,000	2.5	26.2	1.1	10.6	5.1	4.3
IT	LG Electronics	A066570	62,500	75,000	10.2	23.6	0.9	6.3	12.1	3.9
IT	NCsoft	A036570	240,000	310,000	5.3	18.7	2.6	10.4	36.0	15.0

Fund Flows

Global Fund Flows (USDm)

Market	Net Flows (Last Week)	% of AUM*	4-Week Average	% of AUM*	YTD Amount	YTD Change (%)
GEM	(622)	(0.2)	(785)	(0.2)	(5,885)	(8.0)
Asia ex Japan	335	0.1	(46)	(0.0)	(1,470)	(11.7)
Latin America	59	0.4	31	0.2	29	(4.3)
EMEA	(67)	(0.2)	(27)	(0.1)	(261)	(6.5)
EMs: subtotal (A)	(296)	(0.0)	(827)	(0.1)	(7,587)	(9.5)
Global	(1,509)	(0.1)	(48)	(0.0)	1,460	(7.1)
Asia Pacific	(400)	(0.1)	165	0.1	6,420	(10.2)
Western Europe	(4,216)	(0.4)	(1,039)	(0.1)	(2,344)	(9.0)
North America	(5,737)	(0.2)	(5,464)	(0.2)	(50,996)	(9.1)
DMs: subtotal (B)	(11,861)	(0.2)	(6,387)	(0.1)	(45,459)	(8.7)
Total (A+B)	(12,157)	(0.2)	(7,214)	(0.1)	(53,047)	(8.8)

Domestic Fund Flows (USDm)

Type	Net Flows (Last Week)	% of AUM*	4-Week Average	% of AUM*	YTD Amount	YTD Change (%)
Equity-type	455	0.6	376	0.5	2,072	(3.7)
Domestic-invested	510	0.9	379	0.6	2,013	(1.9)
Overseas-invested	(54)	(0.4)	(3)	(0.0)	59	(11.0)
Mixed-type	9	0.0	21	0.1	146	(0.6)
Equity	(7)	(0.1)	2	0.0	10	(2.1)
Bond	16	0.1	18	0.1	136	(0.2)
Bond-type	1,147	1.3	343	0.4	2,799	4.3
MMF	3,518	3.0	2,199	1.9	26,052	28.2
Total BCs	5,129	1.6	2,939	0.9	31,069	9.2

Market Valuations

MSCI Korea Forward P/E: 10.2 (Current), with a range based on historic P/E and standard deviation.
MSCI Korea Forward P/B: 0.9 (Current).
Kospi Forward P/E: 11.81 (Average), with a range of 11.01 to 12.60.
Kospi Forward P/B: 0.89 (Current).
Kosdaq Forward P/E: 10.1 (Current).
Kosdaq Forward P/B: 1.0 (Current).