2025-06-17-花旗集团-百康生物（BION）_Biocon（BION.BO）模型更新_11页_288kb
报告摘要
Citigroup Analysis on Biocon
- Date: June 17, 2025
- Analyst: Vivek Agrawal, CFA
- Recommendation: Maintain "Buy" with unchanged target price (TP) of Rs430/sh.
- Key Changes: Revisions to FY26/27 earnings per share (EPS) projections were lowered by 5-10% due to FY25 trends.
- Expected Returns:
- Share price return: 20.3%
- Total return: 20.7%
- Dividend yield: 0.4%
- Market Cap: Rs428,308M (US$4,989M).
Financial Highlights (Key Metrics)
| Year | Net Profit (RsM) | Diluted EPS (Rs) | EPS Growth (%) | P/E Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 2,250 | 1.87 | -69.1 | 190.8 |
| 2025A | 2,820 | 2.35 | 25.4 | 152.1 |
| 2026E | 9,923 | 8.27 | 251.9 | 43.2 |
| 2027E | 16,738 | 13.95 | 68.7 | 25.6 |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (%) | - | 28.9% | 5.9% | 15.1% |
| EBITDA Growth (%) | - | 7.2% | 36.0% | 42.3% |
Valuation Analysis
- Target Price (TP): Rs430/sh, unchanged from previous.
- SOTP Valuation: Based on sum-of-parts:
- Generic segment: Rs50/sh (16x Mar'27E EBITDA).
- Research Services: Rs150/sh (25x Mar'27E EBITDA).
- Biosimilars (EMs+DMs): Rs230/sh (20x Mar'27E EBITDA with 30-40% premium).
- Justification: Reflects in-line multiples relative to peers; 10% holding company (holco) discount applied.
Risks
- Biosimilar portfolio delays could hinder market share growth.
- Biopharma business vulnerability to price erosion due to its revenue contribution.
- INR currency strength may negatively impact performance.
Analyst Certification and Disclosure
- Analyst certification includes potential conflicts of interest, as Citigroup may do business with Biocon.
- Recommendations not purely independent; influenced by regulatory and Firm policies.
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