2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ireland_Selected_Issues_74页_2mb

Summary of "Ireland: Selected Issues"

Core Content

This document is a staff report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Ireland, prepared on August 28, 2012, as part of the periodic consultation process. It analyzes key macroeconomic issues related to household consumption, wealth, and saving; access to credit and debt overhang; and the medium-term fiscal consolidation and structural unemployment challenges in Ireland.

I. Household Consumption, Wealth, and Saving

A. Introduction

• Household consumption is a major component of domestic demand, which has not fully recovered.
• Real private consumption growth averaged about 7% in 2005–07, contributing to the boom.
• From its peak in Q4 2007, real private consumption fell by 14.6% by Q1 2012, significantly contributing to the 9.4% GDP decline.
• As of Q1 2012, private consumption continued to decline at a rate of 2.2% year-on-year, dampening the prospects for a broad-based recovery.

B. The Consumption-Balance Sheet Nexus

• High household indebtedness during the boom period distinguished Ireland from other countries.
• The lending and balance sheet channels created self-reinforcing cycles between borrowing and demand.
• During the crisis, falling asset values led to a sharp decline in lending and demand, which fed back into falling incomes and asset prices.
• The balance sheet channel can lead to overborrowing and act procyclically, as seen in the financial accelerator concept.

C. The Outlook for Household Saving and Consumption

• In 2011, Ireland had one of the highest savings rates in Europe at 14%.
• The savings rate is expected to decline gradually from 14% to about 12% by 2017.
• The decline in household debt is projected to go from 210% to 185% of disposable income by 2017.
• Alternative scenarios show that increased new lending could support a slower reduction in debt, but may also slow growth.
• The debt overhang is expected to prolong the subdued consumption outlook in the medium term.

II. Access to Credit, Debt Overhang, and Economic Recovery: The Irish Case

A. Introduction

• Ireland experienced a prolonged credit boom, particularly in property and financial sectors, followed by a steady decline in bank credit.
• A credit crunch is defined as a reduction in credit availability or a tightening of lending conditions.
• Credit market frictions are likely to hinder economic recovery, especially for SMEs and households.

B. Overall Credit Conditions

• Credit to the private sector has been contracting, with household credit declining the most.
• Cross-border lending by Irish banks fell from 150% of GDP to just over 80% of GDP.
• Corporate sector credit, particularly to SMEs, has declined significantly, with new lending at about half pre-crisis levels.
• Interest coverage ratios for firms have declined sharply, with the median firm's ratio dropping from 6.9 in 2002 to 0.8 in 2009.

III. Medium-Term Fiscal Consolidation in Ireland: Growth-Friendly, Targeted, Sustainable

• The paper emphasizes the need for a growth-friendly and sustainable fiscal consolidation.
• Revenue trends show a mix of tax increases and spending cuts.
• High-quality options for broadening the revenue base include improving tax collection and broadening the tax base.
• Targeted and efficient expenditure reforms are also discussed to ensure fiscal sustainability without harming growth.

IV. Averting Structural Unemployment in Ireland

• The Irish labor market has been significantly impacted by the crisis.
• Challenges in reducing unemployment include structural issues and the need for labor market reforms.
• Potential risk factors for higher structural unemployment include a lack of job creation and continued low growth.
• Further reforms are needed to support employment and reduce structural unemployment, including labor market flexibility and skills training.

Key Findings and Main Points

• Household Consumption: Still subdued due to the impact of the debt overhang and the lingering effects of the credit boom.
• Debt Overhang: Households have high debt levels, which are expected to slow the recovery of consumption and GDP.
• Credit Crunch: Credit market frictions are significant, especially for SMEs and households, and are likely to constrain economic recovery.
• Interest Coverage: Sharp decline in interest coverage ratios for firms, particularly SMEs and in the property sector, highlights financial constraints.
• Fiscal Consolidation: Needs to be growth-friendly and targeted to avoid further dampening of economic activity.
• Structural Unemployment: Requires reforms to improve labor market flexibility and support job creation.

Key Information

• Household Savings Rate: Expected to decline from 14% in 2011 to 12% by 2017.
• Household Debt: Projected to fall from 210% to 185% of disposable income by 2017.
• SME Financing: SMEs are financially constrained, relying on bank financing which has been reduced.
• Interest Coverage Ratios: Median firm's ratio fell from 6.9 in 2002 to 0.8 in 2009.
• Fiscal Policy: Needs to balance debt reduction with growth support, avoiding excessive austerity.

Conclusion

• Irish households are still recovering from a large credit-driven boom-bust cycle, with high debt levels and low savings rates.
• The procyclical nature of the lending and balance sheet channels deepened the recession and slowed recovery.
• The debt overhang is expected to continue to restrain consumption and growth in the medium term.
• SMEs and households face significant financing constraints, requiring targeted policy interventions.
• Fiscal consolidation must be growth-friendly and sustainable to avoid further economic stagnation.