2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ireland_Selected_Issues_33页_972kb

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Ireland

Core Content

This document outlines the technical challenges Ireland faces in implementing EU fiscal rules and suggests potential approaches to address these issues. It focuses on the application of the Structural Adjustment Rule and the Expenditure Benchmark under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the implications of Ireland's unique economic structure on fiscal compliance assessments.

Main Views and Key Information

A. Introduction

• Ireland is expected to exit the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in 2015, with the overall deficit reduced from 13.3% of GDP in 2010 to 3.9% in 2014.
• Despite this reduction, Ireland's public debt remains high at 110% (gross) and 92% (net) of GDP at the end of 2014, one of the highest in the Eurozone.
• Exiting the EDP does not necessarily mean the fiscal position is healthy, as the debt ratio remains high and vulnerable to shocks.
• Ireland's fiscal policy will now be guided by the preventive arm of the SGP, which aims for a structural balanced budget.

B. EU Fiscal Rules and Compliance Assessments

• The Medium-Term Objective (MTO) is the central element of the preventive arm of the SGP, and Ireland's MTO is set at 0% of GDP.
• The Structural Adjustment Rule requires the structural balance to converge to the MTO by at least 0.5% of GDP annually.
• The Expenditure Benchmark caps nominal spending growth based on potential GDP growth and inflation projections.
• The EC monitors compliance with both rules, using a harmonized methodology, and allows for some deviations within defined thresholds.
• If deviations are significant, the EC may issue warnings and sanctions, including a remunerated deposit of 0.2% of GDP.

C. Technical Challenges in Estimating Potential Output in Ireland

• Estimating potential output is critical for applying EU fiscal rules, but Ireland faces significant challenges due to:
  • Volatility and revisions in GDP data: Irish GDP data are among the most volatile in the EU, with substantial revisions and long lags.
  • Impact of Multinational Enterprises (MNEs): MNEs account for 25% of Irish GDP and can cause large swings in output without significant changes in domestic resource utilization.
  • Procyclical labor force: Ireland's labor force is highly responsive to GDP changes, with large migration flows affecting the potential output estimate.
  • Discrepancies in potential output estimates: Different methodologies (IMF, OECD, EC) produce significantly different potential output and output gap estimates, with the EU method being more aligned with actual GDP trends.

D. Potential Approaches to Manage Technical Challenges

• Methodological refinements: Ireland should refine the EU production function methodology to better account for labor supply changes and the impact of MNEs.
• Alternative methodologies: Using multivariate filters that incorporate additional indicators like asset prices and private credit could improve the accuracy of potential output estimates.
• Consideration of MNEs: Since MNEs contribute significantly to GDP but not to government revenues, fiscal adjustments should focus on GDP excluding MNE-dominated sectors.
• Timely data: Improving the availability of quarterly sectoral GDP data would enhance the accuracy of potential output and output gap estimates.

Key Points

• Fiscal Rules: Ireland's fiscal policy will be guided by the Structural Adjustment Rule and the Expenditure Benchmark.
• Potential Output: Accurate estimation of potential output is essential for assessing the structural fiscal balance and output gaps.
• Challenges: GDP volatility, MNE impact, and labor force procyclicality complicate potential output estimation.
• Solutions: Refining methodologies, incorporating alternative indicators, and focusing on non-MNE GDP data can help address these issues.

Conclusion

Ireland's exit from the EDP in 2015 marks a shift in fiscal policy towards the preventive arm of the SGP. However, the country faces unique technical challenges in estimating potential output due to its economic structure and data characteristics. Addressing these challenges through methodological improvements and alternative approaches is crucial for ensuring effective fiscal compliance and long-term sustainability.