2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ireland_Selected_Issues_72页_1mb

Summary of the Document on Ireland

Core Content

The document provides an in-depth analysis of public expenditure efficiency in Ireland, commercial real estate (CRE) risks and the supervisory response, and firm-level productivity and its determinants. It is a comprehensive review prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for policy consultation and contains data and analysis up to July 13, 2016.

Public Expenditure Efficiency in Ireland

Main Points

• Fiscal Consolidation and Growth: Ireland's successful fiscal consolidation and growth turnaround have created fiscal space under the SGP. However, more efficient public spending could further enhance this space.
• Expenditure Trends:
  • Nominal public expenditure in Ireland is in the low-to-average category when compared to peers.
  • The expenditure-to-GDP ratio fell sharply from 2009 to 2015, with a particularly large decline in capital spending.
  • The ratio of public expenditure to GDP was 35% in 2015, below the OECD average. When using GNP, it climbed to 42%, close to the OECD average but still below key European comparators.
• Functional Expenditure Breakdown:
  • Social protection is the largest functional budget, accounting for about 40% of total expenditure.
  • Ireland spends more than the EU average on healthcare and social benefits, while education and social protection are more efficient than other areas.
• Efficiency Analysis:
  • Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to estimate potential efficiency gains in healthcare and education.
  • Healthcare is highlighted as an area where Ireland spends more than the EU average.
  • Education benefits from a rich set of indicators to evaluate outcomes.
• Key Findings:
  • Ireland's Gini index reduction due to social spending is among the best in the OECD.
  • The "bang for the buck" index indicates that Ireland is 45% more effective at reducing income inequality than the EU average.
  • Despite strong redistribution, certain age cohorts (especially youth) are not benefiting as much from the social safety net.

Policy Recommendations

• Infrastructure Investment: Increase the quality and efficiency of public infrastructure spending.
• Public Investment Planning: Strengthen the framework for public investment planning, including better project appraisal, cost-benefit analysis, and centralized asset registers.
• Social Protection Targeting: Improve the targeting of social benefits, especially for vulnerable groups and younger cohorts.

Commercial Real Estate and Supervisory Response

Main Points

• Recent Trends: The CRE market in Ireland has shown significant growth and changes, especially in the wake of the financial crisis.
• Risks to the Banking System: CRE has been a source of risk for the banking system, contributing to the Irish financial crisis.
• Supervisory Measures:
  • Post-crisis, there has been an increased focus on CRE risk management.
  • The Basel II and Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR) frameworks have been applied to CRE.
  • Microprudential measures are used to assess risks associated with CRE exposures.
• Recommendations:
  • Strengthen CRE valuation and risk assessment processes.
  • Improve capital treatment of CRE under CRR.
  • Implement targeted supervisory measures to address CRE-related risks.

Firm-Level Productivity and Its Determinants: The Irish Case

Main Points

• Productivity Analysis: The paper explores total factor productivity (TFP) growth at the firm level.
• Data and Methodology: The analysis uses firm-level data and DEA to assess productivity.
• Stylized Facts:
  • There is a distance from the frontier in productivity, indicating potential for improvement.
  • Convergence in productivity across firms is observed.
• Determinants of TFP Growth:
  • Factors such as technology adoption, labor quality, and capital investment are identified as key drivers.
• Conclusion:
  • Firm-level productivity is a key factor in long-term economic growth.
  • Improving TFP growth is essential for enhancing economic performance and competitiveness.

Key Figures and Tables

Figures

• Figure 1: Overall Level of Expenditures, Public Sector Wage Bill and Peer Comparisons (2009 vs 2015).
• Figure 2: Public Investment in International Context (Gross Fixed Capital Formation, 2014).
• Figure 3: Core Infrastructure Quality Outcomes (Public Capital Stock, 2012).
• Figure 4: Social Protection Expenditures (Ireland vs peers, 2013).
• Figure 5: Social Protection Outcomes and Efficiency Indicators (Gini index reduction, 2013).
• Figure 6: Targeting, Fairness of Redistribution and Cohort Issues (Risk of Poverty Rate, 2014).

Tables

• Table 1: General Government Expenditure by Functional Classification (2007–2015).
• Table 2: Public Spending in Ireland vs. European Union, 2014.
• Table 3: Share of Means-tested Social Benefits per Category for Ireland and Key Peer Countries, 2012.
• Table 4: Social Protection Expenditures for Ireland and Key Peer Countries, 2014.
• Table 5: Potential Effects as per DEA Analysis based on Different Samples of Comparators.

Annexes

• Annex I: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology and results.

• Annex II: Health Sector Reforms in Ireland.

• Annex III: Efficiency Frontiers on Per Capita PPP Health Expenditures.

• Annex IV: Potential Efficiency Gains on Education.

• Annex V: Potential Efficiency Gains on Health.

• Annex I (CRE): Valuation of Irish CRE Prices.

• Annex II (CRE): Treatment of CRE under Basel II.

• Annex III (CRE): Capital Treatment of CRE under the Capital Requirements Regulation.

• Annex IV (CRE): Microprudential Measures to Assess Risks from CRE Exposures.

• Annex I (Productivity): Sample Coverage, Robustness Estimation Results, and Additional Figures.

References

• Eurostat
• IMF staff calculations
• World Bank
• World Economic Forum
• ESRI
• OECD
• Haver Analytics
• Abbas (IMF, 2012)

Conclusion

The document highlights the importance of public expenditure efficiency, infrastructure investment, and firm-level productivity in Ireland's economic development. It provides a detailed analysis of how Ireland compares to its peers in terms of expenditure levels and efficiency, along with policy recommendations to improve these areas. The focus on CRE risks and supervisory response underscores the need for financial stability and risk management in the post-crisis era.