2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bulgaria_Selected_Issues_30页_2mb

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Bulgaria

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of the relationship between non-financial corporate (NFC) debt overhang and investment in Bulgaria, using firm-level data. It also examines the efficiency of public investment and education spending in the country.

Main Points

Non-Financial Corporate Debt Overhang and Investment

• Investment Trends: Business investment in Bulgaria has been weak since the 2008-09 global financial crisis (GFC), and remains below pre-crisis levels despite a positive growth in 2017.
• Debt Overhang: High levels of corporate debt are identified as a key factor suppressing investment. Debt overhang is defined as high debt levels that limit firms' ability to invest due to the preference of debt holders over shareholders.
• Debt Measures: Two measures of debt overhang are used: the Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) and the Debt-to-Asset Ratio. ICR is considered a better proxy as it reflects the firm's ability to cover interest expenses with earnings.
• Empirical Findings:
  • A 1 percent increase in ICR is associated with a 2.6 percentage point increase in the investment-to-capital ratio.
  • A 1 percent decrease in debt-to-asset ratio is associated with a 2.3 percentage point increase in the investment-to-capital ratio.
  • The negative association between debt overhang and investment holds both before and after the GFC.
  • The effect is most pronounced in the agriculture and mining sectors, while it is smaller in the information and communication sectors.
  • SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises) show a weaker association between debt and investment compared to larger firms.

Public Investment and Education Efficiency

• Public Investment: The paper evaluates the efficiency of public investment and its impact on the capital stock and infrastructure quality.
• Education: It also analyzes the efficiency of education spending and its outcomes, such as human capital development.
• Key Findings:
  • Public investment efficiency is a concern, especially in infrastructure.
  • Education spending efficiency is also under scrutiny, with trade credit being a significant component of other payables.
  • The study suggests that improving the business environment and governance could enhance corporate productivity and profitability.

Key Information

Debt Overhang in Bulgaria

• Overall Debt Levels: Bulgaria's NFC debt is among the highest in the EU new member states (NMS), reaching 84 percent of GDP in 2016.
• Intra-Company Loans: These remain high, at 25 percent of GDP in 2016, reflecting the dominance of foreign-owned firms in the economy.
• Bank Loans: The stock of corporate loans from local banks (including foreign subsidiaries) is 32 percent of GDP in 2017, among the highest in the NMS.
• Other Cross-Border Loans: These account for 17 percent of GDP in 2016, indicating substantial external borrowing.
• Debt Securities: Low levels of debt securities (4.0 percent of GDP) suggest underdeveloped capital markets.

Firm-Level Data and Methodology

• Data Source: The study uses firm-level data from the Orbis database covering the period 2003–2016.
• Variables and Definitions:
  • Investment-to-capital ratio (IK): Measures investment relative to capital.
  • Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR): Earnings before interest and taxes divided by interest expenses.
  • Debt-to-Asset Ratio: Total debt divided by total assets.
  • Sales-to-capital ratio (SK): Controls for sales accelerator effects.
• Methodology:
  • The paper employs the Blundell and Bond (1998) two-step system GMM for estimation.
  • Robustness checks confirm the negative association between debt overhang and investment using alternative measures such as gross and net investment.
  • The study notes that the Hansen test is not always reliable, but the results are consistent across different specifications.

Tables and Figures

Summary Statistics (Table 1)

• Investment-to-capital ratio: Mean 0.28, Median 0.08.
• Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR): Mean 13.4, Median 4.6.
• Debt-to-Asset Ratio: Mean 0.18, Median 0.15.
• Sales-to-capital ratio: Mean 13.1, Median 4.6.

Baseline Results (Table 2)

• Both ICR and debt-to-asset ratio show a negative and statistically significant association with investment.
• Sales are positively correlated with investment in all regressions.

Sectoral Analysis (Tables 3 and 4)

• The strongest negative effect of debt overhang is observed in the agriculture and mining sectors.
• The effect is weaker in the information and communication sectors.
• The impact varies across sectors and firm sizes.

Firm Size Analysis (Table 5)

• Large firms show a stronger negative association between debt and investment.
• SMEs account for 97% of total firms, and their association is less significant.

Robustness Tests (Tables 6–8)

• The results are robust across different measures of investment and debt.
• Excluding firms with zero debt slightly improves the significance levels of the debt-to-equity ratio.

Conclusion

• The study confirms that debt overhang is negatively associated with investment in Bulgaria's NFC sector.
• Policies aimed at reducing corporate debt overhang, such as efficient debt restructuring frameworks and tax measures, could help stimulate credit and growth.
• Reforms to improve the business environment and corporate governance are recommended to enhance productivity and profitability.