2025-06-10-花旗集团-哈萨克斯坦卡斯皮股份公司（KSPI）_哈萨克斯坦Kaspi.kz股份公司（KSPI.O）_2025年第一季度模型更新_尽管近期面临宏观和监管影响_仍保持市场领先地位_18页_697kb

报告摘要

Analysis and Summary of Citigroup Research Report: Kaspi.kz (KSPI.O)

Executive Summary

Citigroup maintains a "Buy/High Risk" rating on Kaspi.kz following the integration of the Hepsiburada acquisition into its 2025 model. The company demonstrates strong market leadership in Kazakhstan's eCommerce and payments sector but faces near-term headwinds from macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes, and competition. Despite these challenges, Kaspi's Super App strategy and international expansion into Turkey present significant growth opportunities, with a revised target price of US$115.

Key Findings

Market Position: Kaspi remains entrenched as the market leader in Kazakhstan's payments sector, boasting ~15 million monthly active users (MAUs) and ~80% market share in digital payments. Its Super App strategy is expanding, targeting an addressable population of 100 million in Turkey.
Performance in Q1 2025: Results met or exceeded expectations in core segments like payments, with TPV growing 23% year-over-year. However, marketplace and fintech businesses were pressured by new smartphone regulations and higher interest rates.
International Expansion: The acquisition of Hepsiburada opens opportunities in Turkey, addressing a ~5x larger addressable market. Despite macro headwinds, including high interest rates and political unrest in Turkey, long-term growth potential is substantial.
Guidance: Kaspi lowered its FY25 net income growth expectation to ~15% year-over-year, reflecting regulatory and macro uncertainty.

Financial Highlights

Revenue and Growth: Total revenue for Q1 2025 was KZT 685B (up 21% YoY), with TPV at KZT 9.7T (~23% YoY growth) and payments net income KZT 98B.
Segment Performance:
- Payments: Resilient with high user engagement (avg. 75 transactions per MAU).
- Marketplace: Slowed GMV growth (20% YoY) due to smartphone registration regulations affecting eCommerce.
- Fintech: Revenue growth stunted by higher interest rates, taxes, and reserve requirements.
Valuation: Target price lowered to US$115 (from US$140) based on a blended DCF/financial metrics model, implying an EV/Revenue multiple of 2.3x for 2026E.

Risks

Emerging Market Exposure: High inflation, macro uncertainty, and regulatory changes in Kazakhstan and Turkey.
Execution Risks: Challenges in retaining users/merchants, scaling in Turkey, cybersecurity, and competition.
Economic Sensitivity: Fintech and discretionary spending vulnerable to rate hikes and consumer volatility.
External Factors: Geopolitical risks (e.g., Russia-Ukraine conflict), EM volatility, and potential license/regulatory issues.

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