2025-06-10-Bernstein-迪尔公司（DE）_迪尔_巴西投资者日要点_18页_4mb

Summary of Deere & Co. Brazil Investor Day Analysis by Bernstein

Overview

Deere & Co (DE) hosted an Investor Day, focusing on its strategic plans for Brazil, aiming to drive above-market growth with North America-like margins. Brazil is positioned as a key opportunity due to its role in global grain supply, expected consumption growth, and the company's ability to address challenges in farming through innovative solutions and a strong operational presence.

Key Growth Targets

• By 2030, DE targets a 2.5x increase in connected machines, 50% growth in engaged acres, and a 150% surge in highly engaged acres, supported by investments in precision agriculture technologies.

Brazil Market Attractiveness

• Brazil is identified as the primary source for incremental corn and soybean supply, with global consumption expected to grow at 13-15% CAGR through 2024, driven by favorable policies and underutilized farmland.
• Challenges include tight re-planting windows and low real-time connectivity (70% lack reliable cell coverage), but DE's solutions like See & Spray and JDLink Boost mitigate these issues, potentially unlocking $115 per acre in incremental profits.

DE's Capabilities and Investments

• DE has invested $25M in local R&D and expanded its Catalão factory, localizing production and introducing new product models across multiple categories.
• The dealer network has grown to over 275 units (up ~3x since 2004), contributing to market share increases in tractors, combines, planters, and sprayers.
• Financial highlights include a 12.5% operating margin, with revenue expectations of around $45B by 2026.

Recommendation and Valuation

• Bernstein maintains a Market-Perform rating with a $548 price target, reflecting incremental positive potential but noting risks such as margin pressures, adoption timelines, and sector-specific factors.
• Adjusted EPS is projected at $22.54 for 2026, with a P/E ratio of 22.9, and returns are expected to outperform broadly over the long term, albeit with short-term CAGR challenges.

Conclusion

The analysis highlights Brazil as a significant growth driver for DE, with Bernstein cautiously optimistic but maintaining a neutral long-term valuation based on current metrics and risks.