2025-06-10-Bernstein-乐购（TSCO）_乐购_阿斯达与乐购的阿尔迪价格匹配重演-无价格战_14页_694kb

Tesco PLC Analysis:

Rating: Outperform
Price Target: 430.00 GBP
Upside: 11%

Main Findings

• No Price War: Despite ASDA’s weak market share, there is no material threat to Tesco's (and Aldi’s) core pricing. ASDA’s price investments have not significantly altered the competitive landscape.
• ASDA Still Expensive: ASDA remains more expensive on 56% of core, high-volume SKUs compared to Tesco and Aldi, even after price rollbacks. Post-Rollback, 56% of ASDA products were still dearer, though 24% were cheaper (mostly <5% cheaper).
• Price Gaps Widened: The median and mean price gap between ASDA and the combination of Tesco/Aldi widened from 0% to 3% (median) and 14-15% to 16% (mean) in June 2025 compared to March.
• Inflation Alignment: Inflation on comparable products is similar, indicating pricing power does not stem from inflation but from consumer perception and share dynamics.
• ASDA Strategy: ASDA’s focus on less critical SKUs has made its pricing less effective overall. Tesco and Aldi can maintain current pricing without worrying about ASDA’s tactics.

Key Takeaways

1. No Price Competition on Core: ASDA is not pressuring Tesco/Aldi on high-volume items.
2. Market Share & Perception: Tesco & Aldi are winning on both share and price perception.
3. Investment Catalysts:
   • Q1 2025 Earnings (June 12): Expect +3.2–3.3% UK LFLs, ROI, and Booker.
   • H1 Earnings in October: Track margin impacts from ASDA.
   • FY25/26 Profit Beat/Upgrade.
4. Values Drives: Stable growth (3.5%–3.0% avg) with reasonable margin management.
5. Valuation: PE avg 13x; EV/EBITDA 7.5x; FCF yield 8%.

Financial Highlights

Conclusion

Tesco is rated Outperform based on its pricing advantage and market positioning. Monitor quarterly earnings and the evolution of the ASDA-Tesco dynamic for further insights.